pTNoC: Probabilistically time-analyzable tree-based NoC for mixed-criticality systems

The use of networks-on-chip (NoC) in real-time safety-critical multicore systems challenges deriving tight worst-case execution time (WCET) estimates. This is due to the complexities in tightly upper-bounding the contention in the access to the NoC among running tasks. Probabilistic Timing Analysis (PTA) is a powerful approach to derive WCET estimates on relatively complex processors. However, so far it has only been tested on small multicores comprising an on-chip bus as communication means, which intrinsically does not scale to high core counts. In this paper we propose pTNoC, a new tree-based NoC design compatible with PTA requirements and delivering scalability towards medium/large core counts. pTNoC provides tight WCET estimates by means of asymmetric bandwidth guarantees for mixed-criticality systems with negligible impact on average performance. Finally, our implementation results show the reduced area and power costs of the pTNoC.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under the PROXIMA Project (www.proxima-project.eu), grant agreement no 611085. This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Mladen Slijepcevic is funded by the Obra Social Fundación la Caixa under grant Doctorado “la Caixa” - Severo Ochoa. Carles Hern´andez is jointly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and FEDER funds through grant TIN2014-60404-JIN. Jaume Abella has been partially supported by the MINECO under Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship number RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Resilient random modulo cache memories for probabilistically-analyzable real-time systems

Fault tolerance has often been assessed separately in safety-related real-time systems, which may lead to inefficient solutions. Recently, Measurement-Based Probabilistic Timing Analysis (MBPTA) has been proposed to estimate Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) on high performance hardware. The intrinsic probabilistic nature of MBPTA-commpliant hardware matches perfectly with the random nature of hardware faults. Joint WCET analysis and reliability assessment has been done so far for some MBPTA-compliant designs, but not for the most promising cache design: random modulo. In this paper we perform, for the first time, an assessment of the aging-robustness of random modulo and propose new implementations preserving the key properties of random modulo, a.k.a. low critical path impact, low miss rates and MBPTA compliance, while enhancing reliability in front of aging by achieving a better – yet random – activity distribution across cache sets.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Software timing analysis for complex hardware with survivability and risk analysis

The increasing automation of safety-critical real-time systems, such as those in cars and planes, leads, to more complex and performance-demanding on-board software and the subsequent adoption of multicores and accelerators. This causes software's execution time dispersion to increase due to variable-latency resources such as caches, NoCs, advanced memory controllers and the like. Statistical analysis has been proposed to model the Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) of software running such complex systems by providing reliable probabilistic WCET (pWCET) estimates. However, statistical models used so far, which are based on risk analysis, are overly pessimistic by construction. In this paper we prove that statistical survivability and risk analyses are equivalent in terms of tail analysis and, building upon survivability analysis theory, we show that Weibull tail models can be used to estimate pWCET distributions reliably and tightly. In particular, our methodology proves the correctness-by-construction of the approach, and our evaluation provides evidence about the tightness of the pWCET estimates obtained, which allow decreasing them reliably by 40% for a railway case study w.r.t. state-of-the-art exponential tails.This work is a collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center within the Joint Laboratory for Extreme-Scale Computing. This research is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, under contract number DE-AC02- 06CH11357, program manager Laura Biven, and by the Spanish Government (SEV2015-0493), by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (contract TIN2015-65316-P), by Generalitat de Catalunya (contract 2014-SGR-1051).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Experience has shown that the performance of these models varies; some tend to do better or worse in different seasons or at different points within a season. Ensemble methods combine multiple models to obtain a single prediction that leverages the strengths of each model. We considered a range of ensemble methods that each form a predictive density for a target of interest as a weighted sum of the predictive densities from component models. In the simplest case, equal weight is assigned to each component model; in the most complex case, the weights vary with the region, prediction target, week of the season when the predictions are made, a measure of component model uncertainty, and recent observations of disease incidence. We applied these methods to predict measures of influenza season timing and severity in the United States, both at the national and regional levels, using three component models. We trained the models on retrospective predictions from 14 seasons (1997/1998 - 2010/2011) and evaluated each model's prospective, out-of-sample performance in the five subsequent influenza seasons. In this test phase, the ensemble methods showed overall performance that was similar to the best of the component models, but offered more consistent performance across seasons than the component models. Ensemble methods offer the potential to deliver more reliable predictions to public health decision makers.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure