Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Conditional Sum-Product Networks: Imposing Structure on Deep Probabilistic Architectures

Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintaining tractability guarantees. One way to implement CSPNs is to use an existing SPN structure and condition its parameters on the input, e.g., via a deep neural network. This approach, however, might misrepresent the conditional independence structure present in data. Consequently, we also develop a structure-learning approach that derives both the structure and parameters of CSPNs from data. Our experimental evidence demonstrates that CSPNs are competitive with other probabilistic models and yield superior performance on multilabel image classification compared to mean field and mixture density networks. Furthermore, they can successfully be employed as building blocks for structured probabilistic models, such as autoregressive image models.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

One-Class Support Measure Machines for Group Anomaly Detection

We propose one-class support measure machines (OCSMMs) for group anomaly detection which aims at recognizing anomalous aggregate behaviors of data points. The OCSMMs generalize well-known one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) to a space of probability measures. By formulating the problem as quantile estimation on distributions, we can establish an interesting connection to the OCSVMs and variable kernel density estimators (VKDEs) over the input space on which the distributions are defined, bridging the gap between large-margin methods and kernel density estimators. In particular, we show that various types of VKDEs can be considered as solutions to a class of regularization problems studied in this paper. Experiments on Sloan Digital Sky Survey dataset and High Energy Particle Physics dataset demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework in real-world applications.Comment: Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2013