War signals: a theory of trade, trust and conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.Beliefs, civil war, conict, cultural transmission, ethnic fractionalization, human capital investments, learning, matching, peacekeeping, stochastic war, strategic complementarity, trade

From low-conflict polity to democratic civil peace: explaining Zambian exceptionalism

An absence of civil war and other significant sub-state violence makes Zambia an exceptional although not unique case in central-southern Africa. The literature devoted to explaining civil war has grown dramatically in recent years, but while it pays much attention to sub-Saharan Africa only rarely does it investigate counterfactual cases like Zambia. Similarly the growing field of research into post-conflict reconstruction fails to capture the distinct features of persistently low-conflict situations where many of the predisposing conditions for violent conflict might seem to be present. This paper examines Zambia’s experience against a background of general theories that try to explain conflict. It is an “interpretative case study”. The paper proceeds by substantiating Zambia’s claim to a relatively peaceful record and introduces ideas of conflict and conflict theories, before arguing that no single general theory dwelling on just one primary “cause” will suffice to explain Zambian exceptionalism. The precise mix of arguments differs for each one Zambia’s three republican eras, as the potential threats to peace have themselves evolved over the period since independence. The paper’s main theoretical claim is that over time the explanation is both multi-layered and dynamic. That said, certain features do stand out, most notably an inherited political culture that is predisposed against the violent resolution of conflict and continues to insulate the country against social and economic traumas and democratic shortcomings

Macroeconomic Effects of the War in Mozambique -

The aim of this paper is to analyse some macroeconomic channels operating in a war economy. At the theoretical level, the effects of such war on the key economic variables capital, technology, uncertainty, and the government's fiscal deficit are discussed before proceeding to the analysis of individuals, firms and the government. These elements are combined in a dynamic macroeconomic model to study a war's impact on output, growth, consumption, welfare and the national debt. The final section of this paper considers economic policy implications for a government at war, and for donors supporting a war economy. Both the theory and the evidence, drawn from Mozambique, suggest that while capital destruction is the most obvious cost of conflict the long-term development potential of a war economy is more severely damaged by increases in the fiscal deficit, uncertainty and transactions inefficiency. Furthermore, economic policies implemented during a war will determine the size and nature of the country's long-term peace dividend.

The Nobel Effect: Nobel Peace Prize Laureates as International Norm Entrepreneurs

For the first time in scholarly literature, this article traces the history of modern international law from the perspective of the constructivist theory of international relations. Constructivism is one of the leadings schools of thought in international relations today. This theory posits that state preferences emerge from social construction and that state interests are evolving rather than fixed. Constructivism further argues that international norms have a life cycle composed of three stages: norm emergence, norm acceptance (or norm cascades), and norm internalization. As such, constructivism treats international law as a dynamic process in which norm entrepreneurs interact with state actors to advance new norms with the objective of states adopting and ultimately internalizing those norms. Given the importance of this school of thought, it is surprising that scholars have yet to map the history of modern international law from the constructivist perspective. This article is the first part of a larger project that attempts to do just that, applying the constructivist theory of international relations to argue that Nobel Peace Prize Laureates have been profoundly instrumental as norm entrepreneurs in the emergence, cascading and internalization of international law norms. Examining the history of modern international law through a constructivist lens reveals that international law has had several distinct periods, each with its own particular narrative. The Pacifist Period (1901-1913) began with a vision of the abolition of war and the peaceful settlement of international disputes. The Statesman Period (1917-1938) built on that foundation with fragile institutions, imperfectly constructed to secure and maintain international peace and security. It also saw the emergence of more lasting international norms combating the unlawful use of force. The Humanitarian Period (1944-1959) established a more effective international architecture and crystallized international humanitarian norms regarding the use of force. The Human Rights Period (1960-1986) emphasized protection of the individual as one of the central pillars of international law. Finally, the Democracy Period (1987-Present) witnessed the triumph of democracy at the end of the Cold War, with widespread recognition that only the democratic form of government was suitable for realizing deeper yearnings of international peace and justice. international law, international relations, constructivism, Nobel Peace Prize, peace, pacificism, human rights, humanitarian, democracy, histor

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.human capital investment

Role of Education in Inculcation of Education For Peace

Peace, as an integrative perspective for the school curriculum, is an idea whose time has come. Education for peace, as distinguished from peace education, acknowledges the goal of promoting a culture of peace as the purpose of shaping the enterprise of education. If implemented with vigor and vision, education for peace can make learning a joyful and meaningful experience. Peace studies aim for a critical analysis of war, armed conflict, and political violence as deeply-rooted phenomena that affect the daily lives of millions of people around the world. The purpose of this analysis is not merely to improve our intellectual understanding of the sources or causes of these phenomena, but also to provide us with an informed basis for effective action to end or resolve them. Peace studies involve a dynamic relationship between theory and practice, and between peace research, peace education, and peace activism. Education for peace seeks to nurture ethical development, including the values, attitudes, and skills required for living in harmony with oneself and with others, including nature. This paper aims at an understanding of ways and means to incorporate peace feeling at all levels of schooling. It is also indicated that how peace can be implanted in the mind of a sensitive child of the twenty-first century at the school and home. The various implications of peace will also be discussed. Highlights will also suggest how peace as a way of life can be inculcated in the classroom and in various extracurricular activities of the school and in daily life situations.   Most Searchable Keywords For This Article: the role of education in peaceful living; the constructive role of education in peaceful living; constructive role of education in peaceful living; constructive role of education in moving towards peaceful living ppt; constructive role of education towards peaceful living; what is the role of education for peaceful living; constructive role of education in moving towards peaceful living; highlight the constructive role of education towards peaceful living, constructive role of education in moving towards peaceful living, role of teacher in promoting peace education, education for peace essay, education for peace, constructive role of education and critical pedagogy in moving towards peaceful living, role of social agencies in promoting peace education, importance of peace education, role of school in promoting peace education &nbsp

Who\u27s Looking: Listening for the Hidden Story of Women\u27s Peace Leadership Learning

Globally, women engage in a multiplicity of agentic roles advocating for peace in their communities. Their involvement comes from an experienced or perceived need and the desire to do something about it. Women are recognized as crucial and competent actors in building peace, in post-war, and post genocide, and, in peace processes and negotiations and women’s community peacebuilding. In communities, women have proven themselves as leaders, bringing socio-cultural, economic and political positive change, while facing significant challenges and obstacles Yet, their expertise and efforts are seldom recognized or translated into positions of decision-making power. We do not know a great deal about their diverse leadership journeys. Women have a long tradition of merging learning and leadership for social and community change; however, rarely does scholarship explicitly focus peacebuilding. Peacebuilding is a significant and under examined learning site. Informed by feminist grounded theory methodology and oral history methods, The Women’s Peace Leadership Learning: An Oral History Project sought to understand women’s situated experiences, knowledge and learning to be community peace leaders. During 2019, I interviewed nine community women peace leaders from nine countries, from four continents. The women were between 30 and 50, and live in urban and rural, crisis and conflict areas. The women are involved in diverse issues including, but limited to, Indigenous and human rights, gender-based violence, child sexual abuse, climate change, the environment, conflict resolution, gender justice, and women’s economic security. This presentation will highlight the emergent findings of these dynamic women’s narratives, the why, how and what of their peace leadership learning, as well as their peacebuilding practice which contributes to the well-being of their families, communities and the women themselves

The structure of global economic integration and conflict

Empirical examinations have reached a number of conclusions regarding the relationship between global economic integration and interstate conflict. Most studies find that increased economic relations dampen the likelihood of interstate violence. Yet these studies have focused largely on bilateral trade measures and domestic-level causal mechanisms. In this paper I take the discussion to the structural level and construct systemic variables for global economic openness and concentration. I then test the relationships among these variables and international conflict using an autoregressive model and event count regression methods. The outcomes suggest that high levels of hegemonic protection and global economic concentration are associated with low levels of systemic violence, a finding that runs counter to much of the existing empirical and theoretical literature surrounding the international market and conflict.Governmen

Landscape and flux for quantifying global stability and dynamics of game theory

Game theory has been widely applied to many areas including economics, biology and social sciences. However, it is still challenging to quantify the global stability and global dynamics of the game theory. We developed a landscape and flux framework to quantify the global stability and global dynamics of the game theory. As an example, we investigated the models of three-strategy games: a special replicator-mutator game, the repeated prison dilemma model. In this model, one stable state, two stable states and limit cycle can emerge under different parameters. The repeated Prisoner's Dilemma system has Hopf bifurcation transitions from one stable state to limit cycle state, and then to another one stable state or two stable states, or vice versa. We explored the global stability of the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma system and the kinetic paths between the basins of attractor. The paths are irreversible due to the non-zero flux. One can explain the game for $Peace$ and $War$.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figure

‘Our brothers who went to the bush’ : Post-identity conflict and the experience of reconciliation in Sierra Leone

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