A theory of endogenous time preference, and discounted utility anomalies

We explain essentially all known discounted utility anomalies as artefacts of the optimizing behavior of an individual with a time- separable utility function, who perceives a good as a source of a stochastic consumption stream, and believes that she can wait for an optimal moment to buy or sell the good. For this individual, the fair price of the corresponding utility stream is interpreted as an integral of a deterministic utility stream multiplied by certain non-exponential factors which we interpret as endogenous discount factors; the factors are different for gains and losses, and depend on the utility function and underlying uncertainty. We provide analytic expressions and numerical examples for discount factors assuming simple utility functions and gaussian uncertainty.Time preference, discounted utility anomalies, decision-making under uncertainty, optimal stopping

Valuing Joint Ventures Using Real Options

As the valuation of strategic measures becomes increasingly important, relatively few articles have discussed the valuation methods pertained for joint ventures. This paper shows that real options contribute to a better valuation of joint venture projects through superior reflection of the value drivers compared to traditional valuation methodology. Particularly, the strategic value of a joint venture and the value of flexibility that stems from a less than full commitment can be determined using options valuation. Besides reviewing the basics of real options, the paper discusses the key levers of joint ventures and shows the power of real options in the valuation process. We apply four option types (option to defer, option to expand/acquisition option, option to innovate, and option to abandon) to an imaginary joint venture example and show how to use the Black/Scholes and binomial valuation techniques to value these options. Of the four option types, particularly the option to innovate is important, as it allows to reflect the strategic value of a joint venture generating future business opportunities. Despite its advantages, this valuation methodology also has some drawbacks that are discussed in the concluding section.Joint ventures, real options, option valuation, Black/Scholes model, binomial option valuation

Discount factors ex post and ex ante, and discounted utility anomalies

The real options approach is used to explain discounted utility anomalies as artifacts of the optimizing behavior of an individual with standard preferences, who perceives the utility from consumption in the future as uncertain. For this ndividual, waiting is valuable because uncertainty is revealed over time. The fair price (or compensation) that the individual agrees to pay (or accept) today is the expected value of utility of the future gain (or loss) multiplied by a certain non- exponential factor which weinterpret as a discount factor ex ante. The factors ex ante are different for gains and losses, and depend on the utility function and underlying uncertainty. After the decision of exchange had been made, valuation ex post reduces to calculation of the standard expected present value. We provide analytic expressions and numerical examples for discount factors assuming different utility functions and models of uncertainty, and demonstrate that our explanation of discounted utility anomalies is robust.real options, time preference, discounted utility anomalies

American options with multiple priors in continuous time

We investigate American options in a multiple prior setting of continuous time and determine optimal exercise strategies form the perspective of an ambiguity averse buyer. The multiple prior setting relaxes the presumption of a known distribution of the stock price process and captures the idea of incomplete information of the market data leading to model uncertainty. Using the theory of (reflected) backward stochastic differential equations we are able to solve the optimal stopping problem under multiple priors and identify the particular worst-case scenario in terms of the worst-case prior. By means of the analysis of exotic American options we highlight the main difference to classical single prior models. This is characterized by a resulting endogenous dynamic structure of the worst-case scenario generated by model adjustments of the agent due to particular occurring events that change the agent’s beliefs.optimal stopping for exotic American options, uncertainty aversion, multiple priors, robustness, (reflected) BSDEs

Real Option Valuation of a Portfolio of Oil Projects

Various methodologies exist for valuing companies and their projects. We address the problem of valuing a portfolio of projects within companies that have infrequent, large and volatile cash flows. Examples of this type of company exist in oil exploration and development and we will use this example to illustrate our analysis throughout the thesis. The theoretical interest in this problem lies in modeling the sources of risk in the projects and their different interactions within each project. Initially we look at the advantages of real options analysis and compare this approach with more traditional valuation methods, highlighting strengths and weaknesses ofeach approach in the light ofthe thesis problem. We give the background to the stages in an oil exploration and development project and identify the main common sources of risk, for example commodity prices. We discuss the appropriate representation for oil prices; in short, do oil prices behave more like equities or more like interest rates? The appropriate representation is used to model oil price as a source ofrisk. A real option valuation model based on market uncertainty (in the form of oil price risk) and geological uncertainty (reserve volume uncertainty) is presented and tested for two different oil projects. Finally, a methodology to measure the inter-relationship between oil price and other sources of risk such as interest rates is proposed using copula methods.Imperial Users onl

Pricing debt instruments: the options approach

Options (Finance)

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.