Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Transferable Pedestrian Motion Prediction Models at Intersections

One desirable capability of autonomous cars is to accurately predict the pedestrian motion near intersections for safe and efficient trajectory planning. We are interested in developing transfer learning algorithms that can be trained on the pedestrian trajectories collected at one intersection and yet still provide accurate predictions of the trajectories at another, previously unseen intersection. We first discussed the feature selection for transferable pedestrian motion models in general. Following this discussion, we developed one transferable pedestrian motion prediction algorithm based on Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) that infers pedestrian intentions and predicts future trajectories based on observed trajectory. We evaluated our algorithm on a dataset collected at two intersections, trained at one intersection and tested at the other intersection. We used the accuracy of augmented semi-nonnegative sparse coding (ASNSC), trained and tested at the same intersection as a baseline. The result shows that the proposed algorithm improves the baseline accuracy by 40% in the non-transfer task, and 16% in the transfer task

Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context

Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups. Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent, providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce the size of the tree while retaining useful information

Context-Aware Trajectory Prediction

Human motion and behaviour in crowded spaces is influenced by several factors, such as the dynamics of other moving agents in the scene, as well as the static elements that might be perceived as points of attraction or obstacles. In this work, we present a new model for human trajectory prediction which is able to take advantage of both human-human and human-space interactions. The future trajectory of humans, are generated by observing their past positions and interactions with the surroundings. To this end, we propose a "context-aware" recurrent neural network LSTM model, which can learn and predict human motion in crowded spaces such as a sidewalk, a museum or a shopping mall. We evaluate our model on a public pedestrian datasets, and we contribute a new challenging dataset that collects videos of humans that navigate in a (real) crowded space such as a big museum. Results show that our approach can predict human trajectories better when compared to previous state-of-the-art forecasting models.Comment: Submitted to BMVC 201

Lifelong Learning of Spatiotemporal Representations with Dual-Memory Recurrent Self-Organization

Artificial autonomous agents and robots interacting in complex environments are required to continually acquire and fine-tune knowledge over sustained periods of time. The ability to learn from continuous streams of information is referred to as lifelong learning and represents a long-standing challenge for neural network models due to catastrophic forgetting. Computational models of lifelong learning typically alleviate catastrophic forgetting in experimental scenarios with given datasets of static images and limited complexity, thereby differing significantly from the conditions artificial agents are exposed to. In more natural settings, sequential information may become progressively available over time and access to previous experience may be restricted. In this paper, we propose a dual-memory self-organizing architecture for lifelong learning scenarios. The architecture comprises two growing recurrent networks with the complementary tasks of learning object instances (episodic memory) and categories (semantic memory). Both growing networks can expand in response to novel sensory experience: the episodic memory learns fine-grained spatiotemporal representations of object instances in an unsupervised fashion while the semantic memory uses task-relevant signals to regulate structural plasticity levels and develop more compact representations from episodic experience. For the consolidation of knowledge in the absence of external sensory input, the episodic memory periodically replays trajectories of neural reactivations. We evaluate the proposed model on the CORe50 benchmark dataset for continuous object recognition, showing that we significantly outperform current methods of lifelong learning in three different incremental learning scenario