Bayesian Networks and Sex-related Homicides

We present a statistical investigation on the domain of sex-related homicides. As general sociological and psychological theory on this specific type of crime is incomplete or even lacking, a data-driven approach is implemented. In detail, graphical modelling is applied to learn the dependency structure and several structure learning algorithms are combined to yield a skeleton corresponding to distinct Bayesian Networks. This graph is subsequently analysed and presents a distinction between an offender and a situation driven crime.Bayesian Networks, structure learning, offender profiling

A comparative analysis of decision trees vis-a-vis other computational data mining techniques in automotive insurance fraud detection

The development and application of computational data mining techniques in financial fraud detection and business failure prediction has become a popular cross-disciplinary research area in recent times involving financial economists, forensic accountants and computational modellers. Some of the computational techniques popularly used in the context of - financial fraud detection and business failure prediction can also be effectively applied in the detection of fraudulent insurance claims and therefore, can be of immense practical value to the insurance industry. We provide a comparative analysis of prediction performance of a battery of data mining techniques using real-life automotive insurance fraud data. While the data we have used in our paper is US-based, the computational techniques we have tested can be adapted and generally applied to detect similar insurance frauds in other countries as well where an organized automotive insurance industry exists

Techniques for predicting dark web events focused on the delivery of illicit products and ordered crime

Malicious actors, specially trained professionals operating anonymously on the dark web (DW) platform to conduct cyber fraud, illegal drug supply, online kidnapping orders, CryptoLocker induction, contract hacking, terrorist recruitment portals on the online social network (OSN) platform, and financing are always a possibility in the hyperspace. The amount and variety of unlawful actions are increasing, which has prompted law enforcement (LE) agencies to develop efficient prevention tactics. In the current atmosphere of rapidly expanding cybercrime, conventional crime-solving methods are unable to produce results due to their slowness and inefficiency. The methods for accurately predicting crime before it happens "automated machine" to help police officers ease the burden on personnel while also assisting in preventing offense. To achieve and explain the results of a few cases in which such approaches were applied, we advise combining machine learning (ML) with computer vision (CV) strategies. This study's objective is to present dark web crime statistics and a forecasting model for generating alerts of illegal operations like drug supply, people smuggling, terrorist staffing and radicalization, and deceitful activities that are connected to gangs or organizations showing online presence using ML and CV to help law enforcement organizations identify, and accumulate proactive tactics for solving crimes

A traffic classification method using machine learning algorithm

Applying concepts of attack investigation in IT industry, this idea has been developed to design a Traffic Classification Method using Data Mining techniques at the intersection of Machine Learning Algorithm, Which will classify the normal and malicious traffic. This classification will help to learn about the unknown attacks faced by IT industry. The notion of traffic classification is not a new concept; plenty of work has been done to classify the network traffic for heterogeneous application nowadays. Existing techniques such as (payload based, port based and statistical based) have their own pros and cons which will be discussed in this literature later, but classification using Machine Learning techniques is still an open field to explore and has provided very promising results up till now

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

A Multi-objective Exploratory Procedure for Regression Model Selection

Variable selection is recognized as one of the most critical steps in statistical modeling. The problems encountered in engineering and social sciences are commonly characterized by over-abundance of explanatory variables, non-linearities and unknown interdependencies between the regressors. An added difficulty is that the analysts may have little or no prior knowledge on the relative importance of the variables. To provide a robust method for model selection, this paper introduces the Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm for Variable Selection (MOGA-VS) that provides the user with an optimal set of regression models for a given data-set. The algorithm considers the regression problem as a two objective task, and explores the Pareto-optimal (best subset) models by preferring those models over the other which have less number of regression coefficients and better goodness of fit. The model exploration can be performed based on in-sample or generalization error minimization. The model selection is proposed to be performed in two steps. First, we generate the frontier of Pareto-optimal regression models by eliminating the dominated models without any user intervention. Second, a decision making process is executed which allows the user to choose the most preferred model using visualisations and simple metrics. The method has been evaluated on a recently published real dataset on Communities and Crime within United States.Comment: in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 24, Iss. 1, 201