Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was constructed to forecast the electricity consumption based on the analysis of five factors which are economic development, policy factors, environmental factors, power energy substitution, and power grid development. For a real application, the retail electricity market of Guangdong province in China was selected. The total, industrial, and commercial electricity consumption in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020 were predicted under different scenarios, and the market shares of the main market entities were analyzed using Markov chain model. Results indicated that the direct trading electricity would account for 70% to 90% of the total electricity consumption in the future. This provided valuable reference for the decision-making of suppliers and the development of electricity industry

CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY MARKET BIDDING PROCESS

This dissertation proposes a closed-loop control system model to facilitate mathematical analysis and promote operational efficiency of the dynamic bidding process. Electricity market deregulation has brought an innovation of the market structure and changed the electric power production from the old monopolistic way to a competitive market environment. Electricity is treated as a commodity and being traded among the market participants. The analysis of electricity market behavior becomes increasingly important and challenging. This dissertation develops a control-theoretic model to analyze and predict electricity market behavior. The model is based on the perspective of the power generation side (GENCOS) and ISO. The purpose is to achieve a rational profit maximizing behavior for GENCOS during the day-ahead bidding process and to improve the wholesale market efficiency. The control-theoretic model uses the game theory embedded with the learning ability as the major bidding strategy, which allows GENCOS to adjust their next-day bidding in the form of supply function equilibrium (SFE) through market observations. Recursive least square (RLS) method based on two ARMA models is introduced for demand and price forecasting in order to maximize the GENCO’s profit. This method is implemented into the bidding strategy of SFE with learning process. In order to better capture the demand and price dynamics beforehand, this dissertation also introduces an adaptive multiresolution prediction algorithm. This algorithm establishes a systematic structure to hierarchically decompose the original demand and price data into subtasks with different time frames, within which the data are able to be trained separately and efficiently. The real market data from New York Independent System Operator and PJM interconnection are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and training algorithm

Реструктуризація ринку електроенергії в контексті трансформаційних процесів і ціноутворення

The study introduces several most significant empirical and analytical findings covering the issue of electricity restructuring. In this regard, it detailes the dataset on electricity framework in order to investigate tendencies and the main challenges in the market structure following the regulation and deregulation processes of the electricity sector, as well as the consequences for pricing. The purpose of the study is to analyze key aspects of the restructuring of electric energy markets in order to determine the main challenges related to justification of the optimal structure of the industry with this framework, as well as to establish the dependence between reforms, structural transformations and price volatility in the energy market. It should be noted that deregulation and restructuring of energy companies have been determined by the transition to competitive relations and made it possible to solve significant problems in different fields of activity, including tariffs, participants’ interests, energy efficiency, etc. Consequently, reforming of the energy market structural components should be comprehensively implemented, in order to avoid fragmentary imbalances and the impact of price distortions on the participants of the electricity market.Дослідження спрямовано на формування ключових практичних і аналітичних висновків, що стосуються проблем реструктуризації електроенергетики. Для цього виявлено найбільш значущі структурні особливості функціонування електроенергетичного ринку, що дозволило висвітлити деякі існуючі тенденції і основні проблеми в структурі енергоринку, пов'язані з процесами регулювання і дерегулювання, а також проаналізувати вплив трансформаційних процесів на встановлення цін на електроенергію, на прикладі ринку електричної енергії України, що перебуває у стадії реформування. Результати дослідження отримані із застосуванням методів порівняння, ретроспективного і аналізу, методів узагальнення і систематизації, а також методів кореляційного і регресійного аналізу. Проведений аналіз предмета дослідження дозволяє зробити висновок, що дерегулювання і реструктуризація енергетичних компаній були визначені в якості переходу до конкурентних відносин і дозволили вирішити значні проблеми в різних сферах господарювання. Отже, реформа структурних складових енергоринку має здійснюватися комплексно, для уникнення фрагментарних диспропорцій і впливу цінових спотворень для функціонування учасників ринку електроенергії

Crucial relationship among energy commodity prices

This study investigates the short and long run relationship between crude oil, natural gas and electricity prices in US and in European commodity markets. The relationship between energy commodities may have several implications for the pricing of derivative products and for risk management purposes. Using daily price data over the period 2001-2009 we perform a correlation analysis to study the short run relationship, while the long run relationship is analyzed using a cointegration framework. The results show an erratic relationship in the short run while in the long run an equilibrium may be identi ed having di erent features for the European and the US markets.Energy, commodities, prices.

International Coercion, Emulation and Policy Diffusion: Market-Oriented Infrastructure Reforms, 1977-1999

Why do some countries adopt market-oriented reforms such as deregulation, privatization and liberalization of competition in their infrastructure industries while others do not? Why did the pace of adoption accelerate in the 1990s? Building on neo-institutional theory in sociology, we argue that the domestic adoption of market-oriented reforms is strongly influenced by international pressures of coercion and emulation. We find robust support for these arguments with an event-history analysis of the determinants of reform in the telecommunications and electricity sectors of as many as 205 countries and territories between 1977 and 1999. Our results also suggest that the coercive effect of multilateral lending from the IMF, the World Bank or Regional Development Banks is increasing over time, a finding that is consistent with anecdotal evidence that multilateral organizations have broadened the scope of the “conditionality” terms specifying market-oriented reforms imposed on borrowing countries. We discuss the possibility that, by pressuring countries into policy reform, cross-national coercion and emulation may not produce ideal outcomes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40099/3/wp713.pd

Governance-technology co-evolution and misalignment in the electricity industry

This paper explores some reasons why the alignment between governance and technology in infrastructures may be unstable or not easy to achieve. Focusing on the electricity industry, we claim that the decentralization of governance – an essential step towards a decentralized technical coordination - may be hampered by if deregulation magnifies behavioural uncertainties and asset specificities; and that in a technically decentralized system, political demand for centralized coordination may arise if the players are able to collude and lobby, and if such practices lead to higher electricity rates and lower efficiency. Our claims are supported by insights coming from approaches as diverse as transaction cost economics, the competence-based view of the firm, and political economy.Governance; Technology; Coherence; Competence; Transaction costs; Regulation.

Oil and gas market in the UK: evidence from a cointegration approach

The paper examines the relationship between UK wholesale gas prices and the Brent oil price over the period 1996-2003. Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long run equilibrium relationship between UK gas and oil prices predates the opening of the UK-Mainland Europe Inter-connector. Following a recursive methodology (Hansen & Johansen 1999), it was found that the cointegrating relationship is present throughout the sample period. However, the long run solutions seem to be more volatile. Evidence is provided that the short run relationship is linear and impulse response functions are used to examine the effects that a shock in oil would have on gas.oil, gas, cointegration, nonparametric cointegration, recursive trace test, error correction, impulse response

Price-caps and Efficient Pricing for the Electricity Italian Market

Deregulation of the electricity generating industry, under way in the United States as well as in Europe, would yield economies to operate in a more competitive environment causing improvement of efficiency and the possibility to develop related financial markets to manage price uncertainty. Electricity spot prices tend to be remarkably volatile as consequence of extreme weather conditions, therefore there seems to be sufficient price uncertainty to warrant the development of derivative markets, however it is important to verify whether the underlying spot market is sufficiently competitive and well functioning to stimulate the development of related financial markets. Analyzing the features and price volatility of European markets which undertook the same process, as well as Norwey, Germany and Spain, we formulate a simple model to control the well functioning of energy spot markets in a deregulated context. The model is tested using Norwegian, Deutsch and Spanish spot prices over the last two years in order to assess the correct price formation in competitive operating markets.Electricity market, Price limits, Market Power

Deregulation and R&D in Network Industries: The Case of the Electricity Industry

Electricity reform has coincided with a significant decline in energy R&D activities. Technical progress is crucial for tackling many energy and environmental issues as well as for long-term efficiency improvement. This paper reviews the industrial organisation literature on innovation to explore the causes of this decline, and shows that it was predicted by the pre-reform literature. More recent evidence endorses this conclusion. At the same time, R&D productivity and innovative output appear to have improved in both electric utilities and equipment suppliers, in line with general improvements in the operating efficiency of the sector. Despite this, a lasting decline in basic R&D and innovation input into basic research may negatively affect development of radical technological innovation in the long run. There is a need for reorientation of energy technology policies and spending toward more basic research, engaging more firms in R&D, encouraging collaborative research, and exploring public private partnerships