Network Analysis of Economic Sectors: An Exploration of Structure using the HITS Algorithm.

This research aimed to investigate the structure of the national economic networks in Japan, Thailand, and Vietnam, at different stages of stock exchange development. Daily return data from the Refinitiv database were used, along with excess returns calculated by subtracting short-term government bond yields from index returns in each country. Key influencers and those heavily impacted by the economic system, were identified by applying Granger causality analysis and the HITS algorithm to nine industry indices. The results showed that the industrial sector (INDUS) significantly influenced other sectors in Japan and Thailand and that the economic sectors most affected by other industries varied by country. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to manage and mitigate potential economic impacts from influential industrial sectors and identify the industry groups most susceptible to potential crises. This study contributes to the existing literature on the topic, enhancing understanding of economic networks, while further research is still needed in different countries and at various stages of economic development to fully comprehend the intricacies of economic networks

The impact of oil and global markets on Saudi stock market predictability: A machine learning approach

This study investigates the predictability power of oil prices and six international stock markets namely, China, France, UK, Germany, Japan, and the USA, on the Saudi stock market using five Machine Learning (ML) techniques and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our analysis reveals that prior to the 2006 collapse, oil exerted the least influence on the Saudi market, while the UK and Japan were the most influential stock markets. However, after the collapse, oil became the most influential factor, highlighting the strong dependence of Saudi Arabia's economic structure on oil production. This finding is particularly noteworthy given Saudi Arabia's efforts to reduce its reliance on oil through Vision 2030. We further demonstrate that China's influence on the Saudi market increased significantly after the 2006 collapse, surpassing that of the UK. This is attributable to the substantial trade between China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the rise in Saudi foreign direct investment in China, and the decline in such investment in the UK post-collapse. Our results carry important implications for stock market investors and policymakers alike. We suggest that policymakers in Saudi Arabia should continue to diversify their economy away from oil and strengthen economic ties with emerging markets, particularly China, to reduce their vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and ensure sustainable economic growth

Speaking Private Authority: The Construction of Sustainability in Forests and Fisheries

The aim of this dissertation is to expand upon current understandings of the emergent global phenomenon that is private authority. Private authority is a process wherein private actors create, implement, and enforce rules aimed at managing global problems. As private authority is becoming increasingly important in the conduct of global governance, broadening our understanding of it will serve the field of International Relations. In this dissertation I argue that private actors are not simply outgrowths of structures or certain material conditions, rather they are purposive actors strategically pursuing an agenda. As such, explaining private authority requires an examination of the constitutive elements that underlie this social phenomenon––to which I apply an innovative conceptual and analytical framework that combines social network theory with discourse analysis. I applied these tools to two cases taken from the environmental sector––forests and fisheries. I found that as a result of the development of a greater networked character to environmental politics, the actors that were best able to generate and wield private authority were those that were able to construct discursive nodal points around which other competing actors could converge––at the level of identity. The construction of nodal points placed these private actors in privileged positions in-between competing networks––making them network connectors. In this position they are able to facilitate the flow of power across networks and convert such into private authority, at a rate greater than that of their competitors. As related to the cases, I found that in forests and fisheries sectors it was the Forest Stewardship Council and Marine Stewardship Council that emerged as the most prominent and expansive private authorities. They did so as a result of their ability to construct a nodal point around their tailored definition of what sustainable development meant, and looked like in practice. This placed them in-between two powerful networks (the environmental NGO network and the industrial network), facilitating the flow of power between them, and leveraging such to expand their programs beyond that of competing programs. Thus, social position plays a crucial role in determining the success of private authority programs

A Complex Social Network Analyses of Online Finanical Communties in Times of Geopolitcal Military and Terrorist Events

Given the advances in technology the field of social network analysis has very much hit the forefront in recent years. The information age harnesses the use of social network analysis for multiple industries and for solving complex problems. Social network analysis is an important tool in the world of the military and counter intelligence, whether it’s the capture of Osama Bin Laden or uncovering hidden Al Qaeda terrorist networks, the world around us is built on networks, be that hidden or otherwise. Online social networks give new information in the world of intelligence agencies similarly online financial communities such as Yahoo Finance gives intelligent information to knowledge hungry investors. This thesis is concerned with the exploration and exploitation of online financial community dynamics and networks using social network analysis (SNA) as a mechanism. Social network analysis measurement techniques will be applied to understand the reaction of online investors to military and terrorist geopolitical events, the stock market’s reaction to these events and if it is possible to predict military stock prices after military and terrorist geopolitical events

The impact of oil and global markets on Saudi stock market predictability: A machine learning approach

Data availability: Data available on request from the authors.JEL classification: C45; D53; G15.This study investigates the predictability power of oil prices and six international stock markets namely, China, France, UK, Germany, Japan, and the USA, on the Saudi stock market using five Machine Learning (ML) techniques and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our analysis reveals that prior to the 2006 collapse, oil exerted the least influence on the Saudi market, while the UK and Japan were the most influential stock markets. However, after the collapse, oil became the most influential factor, highlighting the strong dependence of Saudi Arabia's economic structure on oil production. This finding is particularly noteworthy given Saudi Arabia's efforts to reduce its reliance on oil through Vision 2030. We further demonstrate that China's influence on the Saudi market increased significantly after the 2006 collapse, surpassing that of the UK. This is attributable to the substantial trade between China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the rise in Saudi foreign direct investment in China, and the decline in such investment in the UK post-collapse. Our results carry important implications for stock market investors and policymakers alike. We suggest that policymakers in Saudi Arabia should continue to diversify their economy away from oil and strengthen economic ties with emerging markets, particularly China, to reduce their vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and ensure sustainable economic growth.The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article

Two Essays on Investor Sentiment

The body of literature on investor sentiment underlines its impact on future stock returns, with general consensus that investor sentiments and future returns are negatively correlated (Baker and Wurgler, 2006; Brown and Cliff, 2004). This extends to the notion that a bullish investor would expect returns to be above average, while a bearish investor anticipates below-average returns (Brown and Cliff, 2004). The first essay proposes a model to examine the influence of unexpected volatility of investor sentiment on the equity risk premium. Assumptions underpinning the model include risk-averse investors, homogeneous expectations regarding asset returns and price changes, and sentiment-influenced expectations of asset returns. The model also presumes continuous-time stochastic (Weiner) processes for asset returns and sentiment. The developed model is rooted in several principles, including the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Martingale theory, and the impact of uncertain sentiment change on stock returns. Utilizing Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices for data analysis, the model tests sentiment metrics against the performance of the S&P 500. The results provide insights into the dynamics of investor sentiment and its impact on equity risk premium, laying the groundwork for further empirical investigation. In the first essay, we evaluate the link between industry tournament incentives and investment inefficiency. We find that firms with higher tournament incentives exhibit higher investment inefficiency. Additionally, cross-sectional tests suggest that these effects operate at least in part through both a financing channel and a monitoring channel. Taken together, our results suggest that industry tournament incentives place pressure on CEOs and affect the efficiency of firm investments. In the second essay, we examines the phenomenon of sentiment transmission across stock markets, focusing on the influence of U.S. investors\u27 sentiment on G7 countries. The study utilizes data from the Global Finance database, including stock indices for G7 countries and two measures of sentiment for the U.S. market: news sentiment and social media sentiment. News sentiment captures the impact of positive and negative news articles on market sentiment, while social media sentiment reflects the influence of social media posts on market sentiment. The analysis employs a vector autoregression (VAR) model and Multivariate GARCH model to understand the interdependence of these variables and how changes in U.S. investors\u27 sentiment affect other markets. The study highlights the increasing prevalence and significant impact of sentiment transmission due to the global interconnectedness of markets, amplified by financial innovations like ETFs. The findings contribute to a better understanding of sentiment transmission and its implications for global financial markets, providing insights for policymakers and market participants

Derivatives as weapons of mass deception and elite contestation: the case of FIAT

Derivatives as weapons of mass deception and elite contestation: the case of FIA

China in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Structural Power Approach

In less than one century, the People’s Republic of China has emerged from an inward-looking nation unable to feed or protect its citizens to a global actor that has shifted the distribution of power and caused alarm in the international community. A crucial aspect of China’s emergence is its regional engagement to secure access to resources and markets. These pursuits sustain China’s domestic economy and enable its worldwide growth. However, the discourse encompassing a rising China often lapses into the well-traveled space of predicting what type of power China will become and its consequences. Debates regarding status-quo or revisionist power, and peaceful rise versus confrontation with the existing hegemonic order, while initially applicable, are increasingly outmoded questions with reduced capacity to provide novel insight. So too, is the question of whether a grand strategy motivates China’s rise, viewed here as less fertile ground for new exploration. Moving past these questions to a holistic examination of China’s rise offers another path for understanding. The missing piece to the puzzle of China’s engagement with regions worldwide, such as that found in Latin America and the Caribbean, and a deeper understanding of concepts of power can be found in the nexus between that regional presence and the development of structural power. The present research examines the transitional space of agenda-setting power located at the sub-international system level rather than assessing it only after that power has allegedly already been attained. It is argued that power-as-resources approaches, or actor-centric relational power concepts, provide an incomplete solution to the puzzle. On the other hand, theories of structural power offer a more nuanced approach to understanding China’s engagement. Susan Strange’s analytical framework of structural power emerges as a particularly useful paradigm. Building on Strange’s original idea that the control and exercise of certain key elements by a state can produce structural power, this study examines China’s activities in Latin America and the Caribbean through a structural power lens to provide new insight. Understanding the far-reaching implications of China’s rise is enabled by utilizing an approach that conceptualizes power as less direct, less perceptible, and less coercive. It is a subtle form of power that can have systemic effects. This project leverages these ideas to construct a bridge between China’s presence in Latin America and the Caribbean and the development of capabilities that advance its capacity to realize system level structural power

Financial instability: is regionalism the answer?

Since the end of World War II there has been a nearly universal trend toward regionalism, best represented by the European case and the rise of more than one hundred other regional agreements. This tendency, however, has experienced a particularly steep increase since the 1980s due to significant political and economic developments. The rise of economic and more importantly financial globalization fostered by impressive technological progress is regarded as one of the key factors in bringing about this new wave of regionalism, as it has raised a number of questions regarding governance, negative effects of financial instability and possible responses by states. An analysis of how crises affect power relations will be conducted. In this context, regionalism in terms of trade unions and more importantly monetary unions will be examined as a response to the question of governance of financial instability by the means of the comparative examples of the EU and ASEAN. Moreover, attention will be dedicated to the evaluation of future developments regarding the general trend towards deeper regional economic integration and the rise of regional monetary unions. The key question is as follows: Is economic regionalism to be considered the answer to the risks of financial instability? Does financial instability cause economically vulnerable countries to seek mechanisms to protect their economic power and build a shield in the form of regional economic and monetary integration in order to avert the risks of Globalization that eventually favor strong economies and so attempt a systemic change