Horizon scanning: bringing strategic insight to national security policymaking

The Australian Government has recently undertaken a number of concrete initiatives to enhance national security policy coordination. As of the date of publication of this paper, some have been implemented, such as the ‘All Hazards National Assessment’ on Australia’s near-term security challenges, and the coordinated national security budget.  Others, such as a national security capability plan, are still working towards maturity; while the progress towards the adoption of a risk-based approach to national security policy and planning remains unclear. Together, these new approaches to planning and prioritising will make important contributions towards establishing a comprehensive framework for national security policymaking in Australia

Technology Foresight on Emerging Technologies: Implications for a National Innovation Initiative in Brazil

Prospective studies about emerging technologies and their implications for public policy formulation indicate critical choices ranging from global to national level, even to the individual firm or institution. Emerging technologies have been shaping the future of some industries and transforming many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the restructuring of industries as never before. Specially designed for enabling better planning and future decisions, technology foresight (TF) methods are used to foresee diffusion of innovations, mapping out commercially viable roadmaps for technological development. This paper is concerned with a methodological instrument adopted in Brazil as support for building the Agenda for a National Innovation Initiative (NII), which was articulated by government, universities, R&D institutions, and private firms. It presents and discusses an integrated methodological approach for a TF study, specially designed for the purpose of this Brazilian innovation policy instrument, concerning three emerging technologies – nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information and communication technologies (ICT)

Standardisation framework to enable complex technological innovations: The case of photovoltaic technology

Strategic standardisation is becoming increasingly challenging due to high levels of complexity, interdisciplinarity, and systems nature of modern technologies. This paper develops a standardisation mapping framework for systematic and comprehensive analyses of how standardisation supports innovation, by integrating key ‘dimensions of standardisation’ addressed in existing conceptual models and related literature. A longitudinal case study of photovoltaic technology highlights evolving dynamics of these dimensions over multiple technology lifecycles, thus demonstrating the importance of such holistic and integrative approach. Based on a widely-used foresight tool, the framework can be used to help decision-makers develop more coherent, long-term, and system-wide strategies for standardisation.Gatsby Charitable Foundatio

Strategic standardisation of smart systems: A roadmapping process in support of innovation

With increasing awareness among policymakers and other stakeholders of the importance of standards in supporting innovation, many national governments and standards organisations are taking strategic foresight approaches to standardisation . This is especially the case for ICT-based ‘smart systems’, where an increasing number of different technologies and systems are interconnected to each other, involving a complex variety of actors. Roadmapping is a widely used tool to support such strategic policy processes, yet there remain significant challenges in terms of structuring and managing roadmapping exercises. This paper proposes a systematic process of managing roadmapping practices to develop effective strategies for standardisation in support of innovation. Based on literature regarding public-level strategy roadmaps and reviews of existing standardisation roadmapping exercises, a more systematic process has been developed, incorporating activities and tools to address increased challenges associated with standardisation of such complex areas. Findings of the research not only provide guidance on how roadmapping processes can be structured and organised to more effectively address standardisation issues in innovation strategies for smart systems, but also highlight policy implications, including potential roles for government in supporting standardisation efforts.The authors would like to thank Gatsby Charitable Foundation and Samsung Scholarship Foundation for their financial support, and all interviewees for sharing their knowledge and experiences, which provided invaluable insight for the research. Thanks are also due to two anonymous reviewers who provided constructive feedback and suggestions, which made the paper much stronger than before.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.01

Creative destruction or mere niche creation? Innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in policy mixes in innovation studies. While it has long been acknowledged that the stimulation of innovation and technological change involves different types of policy instruments, how such instruments form policy mixes has only recently become of interest. We argue that an area in which policy mixes are particularly important is the field of sustainability transitions. Transitions imply not only the development of disruptive innovations but also of policies aiming for wider change in socio-technical systems. We propose that ideally policy mixes for transitions include elements of ‘creative destruction’, involving both policies aiming for the ‘creation’ of new and for ‘destabilising’ the old. We develop a novel analytical framework including the two policy mix dimensions (‘creation’ and ‘destruction’) by broadening the technological innovation system functions approach, and specifically by expanding the concept of ‘motors of innovation’ to ‘motors of creative destruction’. We test this framework by analysing ‘low energy’ policy mixes in Finland and the UK. We find that both countries have diverse policy mixes to support energy efficiency and reduce energy demand with instruments to cover all functions on the creation side. Despite the demonstrated need for such policies, unsurprisingly, destabilising functions are addressed by fewer policies, but there are empirical examples of such policies in both countries. The concept of ‘motors of creative destruction’ is introduced to expand innovation and technology policy debates to go beyond policy mixes consisting of technology push and demand pull instruments, and to consider a wider range of policy instruments combined in a suitable mix which may contribute to sustainability transitions