1,210 research outputs found
Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure
We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early
spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a
comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future
popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the
first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize
our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community
concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that
features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of
future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good
predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods
outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular
or unpopular memes.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Proceedings of 8th AAAI Intl. Conf. on
Weblogs and social media (ICWSM 2014
Revisit Behavior in Social Media: The Phoenix-R Model and Discoveries
How many listens will an artist receive on a online radio? How about plays on
a YouTube video? How many of these visits are new or returning users? Modeling
and mining popularity dynamics of social activity has important implications
for researchers, content creators and providers. We here investigate the effect
of revisits (successive visits from a single user) on content popularity. Using
four datasets of social activity, with up to tens of millions media objects
(e.g., YouTube videos, Twitter hashtags or LastFM artists), we show the effect
of revisits in the popularity evolution of such objects. Secondly, we propose
the Phoenix-R model which captures the popularity dynamics of individual
objects. Phoenix-R has the desired properties of being: (1) parsimonious, being
based on the minimum description length principle, and achieving lower root
mean squared error than state-of-the-art baselines; (2) applicable, the model
is effective for predicting future popularity values of objects.Comment: To appear on European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles
and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases 201
- …