Stochastic Budget Optimization in Internet Advertising

Internet advertising is a sophisticated game in which the many advertisers "play" to optimize their return on investment. There are many "targets" for the advertisements, and each "target" has a collection of games with a potentially different set of players involved. In this paper, we study the problem of how advertisers allocate their budget across these "targets". In particular, we focus on formulating their best response strategy as an optimization problem. Advertisers have a set of keywords ("targets") and some stochastic information about the future, namely a probability distribution over scenarios of cost vs click combinations. This summarizes the potential states of the world assuming that the strategies of other players are fixed. Then, the best response can be abstracted as stochastic budget optimization problems to figure out how to spread a given budget across these keywords to maximize the expected number of clicks. We present the first known non-trivial poly-logarithmic approximation for these problems as well as the first known hardness results of getting better than logarithmic approximation ratios in the various parameters involved. We also identify several special cases of these problems of practical interest, such as with fixed number of scenarios or with polynomial-sized parameters related to cost, which are solvable either in polynomial time or with improved approximation ratios. Stochastic budget optimization with scenarios has sophisticated technical structure. Our approximation and hardness results come from relating these problems to a special type of (0/1, bipartite) quadratic programs inherent in them. Our research answers some open problems raised by the authors in (Stochastic Models for Budget Optimization in Search-Based Advertising, Algorithmica, 58 (4), 1022-1044, 2010).Comment: FINAL versio

B-spline techniques for volatility modeling

This paper is devoted to the application of B-splines to volatility modeling, specifically the calibration of the leverage function in stochastic local volatility models and the parameterization of an arbitrage-free implied volatility surface calibrated to sparse option data. We use an extension of classical B-splines obtained by including basis functions with infinite support. We first come back to the application of shape-constrained B-splines to the estimation of conditional expectations, not merely from a scatter plot but also from the given marginal distributions. An application is the Monte Carlo calibration of stochastic local volatility models by Markov projection. Then we present a new technique for the calibration of an implied volatility surface to sparse option data. We use a B-spline parameterization of the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the underlying's risk-neutral probability density with respect to a roughly calibrated base model. We show that this method provides smooth arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces. Finally, we sketch a Galerkin method with B-spline finite elements to the solution of the partial differential equation satisfied by the Radon-Nikodym derivative.Comment: 25 page

Bounds for deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems using sum-of-squares optimization

We describe methods for proving upper and lower bounds on infinite-time averages in deterministic dynamical systems and on stationary expectations in stochastic systems. The dynamics and the quantities to be bounded are assumed to be polynomial functions of the state variables. The methods are computer-assisted, using sum-of-squares polynomials to formulate sufficient conditions that can be checked by semidefinite programming. In the deterministic case, we seek tight bounds that apply to particular local attractors. An obstacle to proving such bounds is that they do not hold globally; they are generally violated by trajectories starting outside the local basin of attraction. We describe two closely related ways past this obstacle: one that requires knowing a subset of the basin of attraction, and another that considers the zero-noise limit of the corresponding stochastic system. The bounding methods are illustrated using the van der Pol oscillator. We bound deterministic averages on the attracting limit cycle above and below to within 1%, which requires a lower bound that does not hold for the unstable fixed point at the origin. We obtain similarly tight upper and lower bounds on stochastic expectations for a range of noise amplitudes. Limitations of our methods for certain types of deterministic systems are discussed, along with prospects for improvement.Comment: 25 pages; Added new Section 7.2; Added references; Corrected typos; Submitted to SIAD

Domain Decomposition for Stochastic Optimal Control

This work proposes a method for solving linear stochastic optimal control (SOC) problems using sum of squares and semidefinite programming. Previous work had used polynomial optimization to approximate the value function, requiring a high polynomial degree to capture local phenomena. To improve the scalability of the method to problems of interest, a domain decomposition scheme is presented. By using local approximations, lower degree polynomials become sufficient, and both local and global properties of the value function are captured. The domain of the problem is split into a non-overlapping partition, with added constraints ensuring $C^1$ continuity. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is used to optimize over each domain in parallel and ensure convergence on the boundaries of the partitions. This results in improved conditioning of the problem and allows for much larger and more complex problems to be addressed with improved performance.Comment: 8 pages. Accepted to CDC 201