63 research outputs found
PAC-Bayesian Analysis of the Exploration-Exploitation Trade-off
We develop a coherent framework for integrative simultaneous analysis of the
exploration-exploitation and model order selection trade-offs. We improve over
our preceding results on the same subject (Seldin et al., 2011) by combining
PAC-Bayesian analysis with Bernstein-type inequality for martingales. Such a
combination is also of independent interest for studies of multiple
simultaneously evolving martingales.Comment: On-line Trading of Exploration and Exploitation 2 - ICML-2011
workshop. http://explo.cs.ucl.ac.uk/workshop
PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Martingales and Multiarmed Bandits
We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences
of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables
to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables
by expectations of the same functions of independent Bernoulli random
variables. This lemma provides an alternative tool to Hoeffding-Azuma
inequality to bound concentration of martingale values. Our second approach is
based on integration of Hoeffding-Azuma inequality with PAC-Bayesian analysis.
We also introduce a way to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis in situation of limited
feedback. We combine the new tools to derive PAC-Bayesian generalization and
regret bounds for the multiarmed bandit problem. Although our regret bound is
not yet as tight as state-of-the-art regret bounds based on other
well-established techniques, our results significantly expand the range of
potential applications of PAC-Bayesian analysis and introduce a new analysis
tool to reinforcement learning and many other fields, where martingales and
limited feedback are encountered
PAC-Bayesian Theory Meets Bayesian Inference
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the
Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss
function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk
bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative
explanation to the Bayesian Occam's razor criteria, under the assumption that
the data is generated by an i.i.d distribution. Moreover, as the negative
log-likelihood is an unbounded loss function, we motivate and propose a
PAC-Bayesian theorem tailored for the sub-gamma loss family, and we show that
our approach is sound on classical Bayesian linear regression tasks.Comment: Published at NIPS 2015
(http://papers.nips.cc/paper/6569-pac-bayesian-theory-meets-bayesian-inference
Generalization bounds for averaged classifiers
We study a simple learning algorithm for binary classification. Instead of
predicting with the best hypothesis in the hypothesis class, that is, the
hypothesis that minimizes the training error, our algorithm predicts with a
weighted average of all hypotheses, weighted exponentially with respect to
their training error. We show that the prediction of this algorithm is much
more stable than the prediction of an algorithm that predicts with the best
hypothesis. By allowing the algorithm to abstain from predicting on some
examples, we show that the predictions it makes when it does not abstain are
very reliable. Finally, we show that the probability that the algorithm
abstains is comparable to the generalization error of the best hypothesis in
the class.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org/aos/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00905360400000005
A General Framework for Updating Belief Distributions
We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid
update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters
which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the
traditional likelihood function, which is recovered under the special case of
using self information loss. Modern application areas make it is increasingly
challenging for Bayesians to attempt to model the true data generating
mechanism. Moreover, when the object of interest is low dimensional, such as a
mean or median, it is cumbersome to have to achieve this via a complete model
for the whole data distribution. More importantly, there are settings where the
parameter of interest does not directly index a family of density functions and
thus the Bayesian approach to learning about such parameters is currently
regarded as problematic. Our proposed framework uses loss-functions to connect
information in the data to functionals of interest. The updating of beliefs
then follows from a decision theoretic approach involving cumulative loss
functions. Importantly, the procedure coincides with Bayesian updating when a
true likelihood is known, yet provides coherent subjective inference in much
more general settings. Connections to other inference frameworks are
highlighted.Comment: This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the article "A General
Framework for Updating Belief Distributions", which has been accepted for
publication in the Journal of Statistical Society - Series B. This article
may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and
Conditions for Self-Archivin
Learning Stochastic Majority Votes by Minimizing a PAC-Bayes Generalization Bound
We investigate a stochastic counterpart of majority votes over finite ensembles of classifiers, and study its generalization properties. While our approach holds for arbitrary distributions, we instantiate it with Dirichlet distributions: this allows for a closed-form and differentiable expression for the expected risk, which then turns the generalization bound into a tractable training objective.The resulting stochastic majority vote learning algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and benefits from (non-vacuous) tight generalization bounds, in a series of numerical experiments when compared to competing algorithms which also minimize PAC-Bayes objectives -- both with uninformed (data-independent) and informed (data-dependent) priors
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