Field-aware Calibration: A Simple and Empirically Strong Method for Reliable Probabilistic Predictions

It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the unreliability of practical machine learning systems. For example, in online advertising, an ad can receive a click-through rate prediction of 0.1 over some population of users where its actual click rate is 0.15. In such cases, the probabilistic predictions have to be fixed before the system can be deployed. In this paper, we first introduce a new evaluation metric named field-level calibration error that measures the bias in predictions over the sensitive input field that the decision-maker concerns. We show that existing post-hoc calibration methods have limited improvements in the new field-level metric and other non-calibration metrics such as the AUC score. To this end, we propose Neural Calibration, a simple yet powerful post-hoc calibration method that learns to calibrate by making full use of the field-aware information over the validation set. We present extensive experiments on five large-scale datasets. The results showed that Neural Calibration significantly improves against uncalibrated predictions in common metrics such as the negative log-likelihood, Brier score and AUC, as well as the proposed field-level calibration error.Comment: WWW 202

Use Case Point Approach Based Software Effort Estimation using Various Support Vector Regression Kernel Methods

The job of software effort estimation is a critical one in the early stages of the software development life cycle when the details of requirements are usually not clearly identified. Various optimization techniques help in improving the accuracy of effort estimation. The Support Vector Regression (SVR) is one of several different soft-computing techniques that help in getting optimal estimated values. The idea of SVR is based upon the computation of a linear regression function in a high dimensional feature space where the input data are mapped via a nonlinear function. Further, the SVR kernel methods can be applied in transforming the input data and then based on these transformations, an optimal boundary between the possible outputs can be obtained. The main objective of the research work carried out in this paper is to estimate the software effort using use case point approach. The use case point approach relies on the use case diagram to estimate the size and effort of software projects. Then, an attempt has been made to optimize the results obtained from use case point analysis using various SVR kernel methods to achieve better prediction accuracy.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 11 Tables, International Journal of Information Processing (IJIP

Learned-Norm Pooling for Deep Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks

In this paper we propose and investigate a novel nonlinear unit, called $L_p$ unit, for deep neural networks. The proposed $L_p$ unit receives signals from several projections of a subset of units in the layer below and computes a normalized $L_p$ norm. We notice two interesting interpretations of the $L_p$ unit. First, the proposed unit can be understood as a generalization of a number of conventional pooling operators such as average, root-mean-square and max pooling widely used in, for instance, convolutional neural networks (CNN), HMAX models and neocognitrons. Furthermore, the $L_p$ unit is, to a certain degree, similar to the recently proposed maxout unit (Goodfellow et al., 2013) which achieved the state-of-the-art object recognition results on a number of benchmark datasets. Secondly, we provide a geometrical interpretation of the activation function based on which we argue that the $L_p$ unit is more efficient at representing complex, nonlinear separating boundaries. Each $L_p$ unit defines a superelliptic boundary, with its exact shape defined by the order $p$. We claim that this makes it possible to model arbitrarily shaped, curved boundaries more efficiently by combining a few $L_p$ units of different orders. This insight justifies the need for learning different orders for each unit in the model. We empirically evaluate the proposed $L_p$ units on a number of datasets and show that multilayer perceptrons (MLP) consisting of the $L_p$ units achieve the state-of-the-art results on a number of benchmark datasets. Furthermore, we evaluate the proposed $L_p$ unit on the recently proposed deep recurrent neural networks (RNN).Comment: ECML/PKDD 201

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science