Bibliometric indicators: the origin of their log-normal distribution and why they are not a reliable proxy for an individual scholar’s talent

There is now compelling evidence that the statistical distributions of extensive individual bibliometric indicators collected by a scholar, such as the number of publications or the total number of citations, are well represented by a Log-Normal function when homogeneous samples are considered. A Log-Normal distribution function is the normal distribution for the logarithm of the variable. In linear scale it is a highly skewed distribution with a long tail in the high productivity side. We are still lacking a detailed and convincing ab-initio model able to explain observed Log-Normal distributions-this is the gap this paper sets out to fill. Here, we propose a general explanation of the observed evidence by developing a straightforward model based on the following simple assumptions: (1) the materialist principle of the natural equality of human intelligence, (2) the success breeds success effect, also known as Merton effect, which can be traced back to the Gospel parables about the Talents (Matthew) and Minas (Luke), and, (3) the recognition and reputation mechanism. Building on these assumptions we propose a distribution function that, although mathematically not identical to a Log-Normal distribution, shares with it all its main features. Our model well reproduces the empirical distributions, so the hypotheses at the basis of the model are not falsified. Therefore the distributions of the bibliometric parameters observed might be the result of chance and noise (chaos) related to multiplicative phenomena connected to a publish or perish inflationary mechanism, led by scholars' recognition and reputations. In short, being a scholar in the right tail or in the left tail of the distribution could have very little connection to her/his merit and achievements. This interpretation might cast some doubts on the use of the number of papers and/or citations as a measure of scientific achievements. A tricky issue seems to emerge, that is: what then do bibliometric indicators really measure? This issue calls for deeper investigations into the meaning of bibliometric indicators. This is an interesting and intriguing topic for further research to be carried out within a wider interdisciplinary investigation of the science of science, which may include elements and investigation tools from philosophy, psychology and sociology

An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

The value of collective reputation for environmentally-friendly production methods: The case of Val di Gresta

In this paper we investigate consumers' preferences for various environment-friendly production systems for carrots. We use discrete-choice multi-attribute stated-preference data to explore the effect of collective reputations from growers of an Alpine valley known for its environment-friendly production: Val di Gresta 'the valley of organic orchards'. Data analysis of the panel of discrete responses identifies unobserved taste heterogeneity for organic, bio-dynamic and place of origin, while observed heterogeneity for income is addressed by a piece-wise linear function. The implied sample distributions of individual-specific WTP for each of these random attributes are then compared. Results indicate that Integrated Pest Management is preferred to biodynamic as an emerging method. The presence of a premium for Val di Gresta produce is confirmed. The use of an experimental design to identify the relevant second order effects reveals the presence of a reputation effect which can be decomposed into a generic effect from place of origin and a specific one for each EFPMs. Farmers operating in geographically limited marginal areas, such as mountain valleys, may find it useful to invest in collective reputation through high quality standard to achieve higher returns. This strategy may compensate for the dwindling public support to farm income from EU programmes

A Direct Reputation Model for VO Formation

We show that reputation is a basic ingredient in the Virtual Organisation (VO) formation process. Agents can use their experiences gained in direct past interactions to model other’s reputation and deciding on either join a VO or determining who is the most suitable set of partners. Reputation values are computed using a reinforcement learning algorithm, so agents can learn and adapt their reputation models of their partners according to their recent behaviour. Our approach is especially powerful if the agent participates in a VO in which the members can change their behaviour to exploit their partners. The reputation model presented in this paper deals with the questions of deception and fraud that have been ignored in current models of VO formation