Improving the sustainability of coal SC in both developed and developing countries by incorporating extended exergy accounting and different carbon reduction policies

In the age of Industry 4.0 and global warming, it is inevitable for decision-makers to change the way they view the coal supply chain (SC). In nature, energy is the currency, and nature is the source of energy for humankind. Coal is one of the most important sources of energy which provides much-needed electricity, as well as steel and cement production. This manuscript-based PhD thesis examines the coal SC network as well as the four carbon reduction strategies and plans to develop a comprehensive model for sustainable design. Thus, the Extended Exergy Accounting (EEA) method is incorporated into a coal SC under economic order quantity (EOQ) and economic production quantity (EPQs) in an uncertain environment. Using a real case study in coal SC in Iran, four carbon reduction policies such as carbon tax (Chapter 5), carbon trade (Chapter 6), carbon cap (Chapter 7), and carbon offset (Chapter 8) are examined. Additionally, all carbon policies are compared for sustainable performance of coal SCs in some developed and developing countries (the USA, China, India, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.) with the world's most significant coal consumption. The objective function of the four optimization models under each carbon policy is to minimize the total exergy (in Joules as opposed to Dollars/Euros) of the coal SC in each country. The models have been solved using three recent metaheuristic algorithms, including Ant lion optimizer (ALO), Lion optimization algorithm (LOA), and Whale optimization algorithm (WOA), as well as three popular ones, such as Genetic algorithm (GA), Ant colony optimization (ACO), and Simulated annealing (SA), are suggested to determine a near-optimal solution to an exergy fuzzy nonlinear integer-programming (EFNIP). Moreover, the proposed metaheuristic algorithms are validated by using an exact method (by GAMS software) in small-size test problems. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis, this dissertation compares the effects of applying different percentages of exergy parameters (capital, labor, and environmental remediation) to coal SC models in each country. Using this approach, we can determine the best carbon reduction policy and exergy percentage that leads to the most sustainable performance (the lowest total exergy per Joule). The findings of this study may enhance the related research of sustainability assessment of SC as well as assist coal enterprises in making logical and measurable decisions

Rethinking construction cost overruns: an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation

The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded. The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project. The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of overruns – referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists. Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term “cost overrun” itself. The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios. The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction “cost overruns”, now proposed to be more appropriately known as “cost growth” based on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and ensemble modelling

The impact of knowledge management processes on organizational resilience: data mining as an instrument of measurement.

The aim of the research conducted for this thesis is to test the feasibility of using data mining (DM) to assess the relationship between and the impact of knowledge management (KM) on organizational resilience (OR). The emphasis currently placed on the value of intangible assets by private sector organizations and the recent increase in the use of data mining technologies are the key drivers in this evaluation of the use of data mining tools as an alternative to classical statistics when measuring intangibles. Data was collected using a questionnaire that was sent to the senior executives of a number of mid-sized companies located in the mid-west of the USA. Using Microsoft's SQL Server's Analytical Services (MSSAS) and the data provided by the respondents, five predictive models are built to test the suitability of the MSSAS' DM tool for assessing the relationships between and the impact of KM on OR. Of the five models constructed as part of this research, four classification models (two Naïve Bayes models, one neural network model, and one decision tree model) and one clustering model were found to be suitable tools for capturing the intricate relationships that exist between KM and OR. These models made it possible to evaluate the strengths of the relationships between KM and OR and to identify which KM processes contribute, and to what extent, to OR. In addition, the models enabled the collation of predicted OR scores, based on the responses given in the questionnaire. Finally, this research identifies some of the key challenges associated with using DM as a measurement instrument for assessing the relationship between and the impact of KM on OR. This research makes a number of significant contributions to the existing body of knowledge. It contributes to the understanding of the impact of KM on OR, to the understanding of the methods used to measure such impact and to the processes involved in measuring such impact using DM. From a practitioner perspective, this research contributes to the understanding of OR and provides a framework for achieving OR within an organizational context