Review of Data Mining Techniques for Churn Prediction in Telecom

Telecommunication sector generates a huge amount of data due to increasing number of subscribers, rapidly renewable technologies; data based applications and other value added service. This data can be usefully mined for churn analysis and prediction. Significant research had been undertaken by researchers worldwide to understand the data mining practices that can be used for predicting customer churn. This paper provides a review of around 100 recent journal articles starting from year 2000 to present the various data mining techniques used in multiple customer based churn models. It then summarizes the existing telecom literature by highlighting the sample size used, churn variables employed and the findings of different DM techniques. Finally, we list the most popular techniques for churn prediction in telecom as decision trees, regression analysis and clustering, thereby providing a roadmap to new researchers to build upon novel churn management models

Review of Data Mining Techniques for Churn Prediction in Telecom

Telecommunication sector generates a huge amount of data due to increasing number of subscribers, rapidly renewable technologies; data based applications and other value added service. This data can be usefully mined for churn analysis and prediction. Significant research had been undertaken by researchers worldwide to understand the data mining practices that can be used for predicting customer churn. This paper provides a review of around 100 recent journal articles starting from year 2000 to present the various data mining techniques used in multiple customer based churn models. It then summarizes the existing telecom literature by highlighting the sample size used, churn variables employed and the findings of different DM techniques. Finally, we list the most popular techniques for churn prediction in telecom as decision trees, regression analysis and clustering, thereby providing a roadmap to new researchers to build upon novel churn management models

Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning and social network analysis in big data platform

Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies, especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning techniques on big data platform and builds a new way of features' engineering and selection. In order to measure the performance of the model, the Area Under Curve (AUC) standard measure is adopted, and the AUC value obtained is 93.3%. Another main contribution is to use customer social network in the prediction model by extracting Social Network Analysis (SNA) features. The use of SNA enhanced the performance of the model from 84 to 93.3% against AUC standard. The model was prepared and tested through Spark environment by working on a large dataset created by transforming big raw data provided by SyriaTel telecom company. The dataset contained all customers' information over 9 months, and was used to train, test, and evaluate the system at SyriaTel. The model experimented four algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Machine Tree "GBM" and Extreme Gradient Boosting "XGBOOST". However, the best results were obtained by applying XGBOOST algorithm. This algorithm was used for classification in this churn predictive model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. PDF https://rdcu.be/budK

Data mining and predictive analytics application on cellular networks to monitor and optimize quality of service and customer experience

This research study focuses on the application models of Data Mining and Machine Learning covering cellular network traffic, in the objective to arm Mobile Network Operators with full view of performance branches (Services, Device, Subscribers). The purpose is to optimize and minimize the time to detect service and subscriber patterns behaviour. Different data mining techniques and predictive algorithms have been applied on real cellular network datasets to uncover different data usage patterns using specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Key Quality Indicators (KQI). The following tools will be used to develop the concept: RStudio for Machine Learning and process visualization, Apache Spark, SparkSQL for data and big data processing and clicData for service Visualization. Two use cases have been studied during this research. In the first study, the process of Data and predictive Analytics are fully applied in the field of Telecommunications to efficiently address users’ experience, in the goal of increasing customer loyalty and decreasing churn or customer attrition. Using real cellular network transactions, prediction analytics are used to predict customers who are likely to churn, which can result in revenue loss. Prediction algorithms and models including Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Networks and Gradient boosting have been used with an exploratory Data Analysis, determining relationship between predicting variables. The data is segmented in to two, a training set to train the model and a testing set to test the model. The evaluation of the best performing model is based on the prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the Confusion Matrix on the test set. The second use case analyses Service Quality Management using modern data mining techniques and the advantages of in-memory big data processing with Apache Spark and SparkSQL to save cost on tool investment; thus, a low-cost Service Quality Management model is proposed and analyzed. With increase in Smart phone adoption, access to mobile internet services, applications such as streaming, interactive chats require a certain service level to ensure customer satisfaction. As a result, an SQM framework is developed with Service Quality Index (SQI) and Key Performance Index (KPI). The research concludes with recommendations and future studies around modern technology applications in Telecommunications including Internet of Things (IoT), Cloud and recommender systems.Cellular networks have evolved and are still evolving, from traditional GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) Circuit switched which only supported voice services and extremely low data rate, to LTE all Packet networks accommodating high speed data used for various service applications such as video streaming, video conferencing, heavy torrent download; and for say in a near future the roll-out of the Fifth generation (5G) cellular networks, intended to support complex technologies such as IoT (Internet of Things), High Definition video streaming and projected to cater massive amount of data. With high demand on network services and easy access to mobile phones, billions of transactions are performed by subscribers. The transactions appear in the form of SMSs, Handovers, voice calls, web browsing activities, video and audio streaming, heavy downloads and uploads. Nevertheless, the stormy growth in data traffic and the high requirements of new services introduce bigger challenges to Mobile Network Operators (NMOs) in analysing the big data traffic flowing in the network. Therefore, Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) turn in to a challenge. Inefficiency in mining, analysing data and applying predictive intelligence on network traffic can produce high rate of unhappy customers or subscribers, loss on revenue and negative services’ perspective. Researchers and Service Providers are investing in Data mining, Machine Learning and AI (Artificial Intelligence) methods to manage services and experience. This research study focuses on the application models of Data Mining and Machine Learning covering network traffic, in the objective to arm Mobile Network Operators with full view of performance branches (Services, Device, Subscribers). The purpose is to optimize and minimize the time to detect service and subscriber patterns behaviour. Different data mining techniques and predictive algorithms will be applied on cellular network datasets to uncover different data usage patterns using specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Key Quality Indicators (KQI). The following tools will be used to develop the concept: R-Studio for Machine Learning, Apache Spark, SparkSQL for data processing and clicData for Visualization.Electrical and Mining EngineeringM. Tech (Electrical Engineering

Customer Churn Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN): A Case Study in Banking

Customer Churn has a great impact on banking industries as it accelerates a loss of revenue and customer loyalty. The focus of the research is to create a model for the banking sector using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which can predict if the customer will churn. The prediction is based on the input features and the independent variable of the trained dataset. The hyperparameters are altered during model training using the forward propagation algorithm and cross-validation techniques which enable the model to perform well with respect to accuracy and precision rate. The achieved results illustrate that the suggested model has an accuracy of 86% at predicting customer attrition. In comparison to the logistic regression model outcomes, ANN models are more effective for predicting customer churn in the banking industry. The study suggests vital perceptions of how to employ machine learning approaches to increase client retention and decrease customer churn. Banks can use this model to spot clients who are at risk of churning and take proactive measures to keep them

Improved Customer Churn and Retention Decision Management Using Operations Research Approach

The relevance of operations research cannot be overemphasized, as it provides the best possible results in any given circumstance, through analysis of operations and the use of scientific method thus, this paper explore the combination of two operations research models (analytic hierarchy process and Markov chain) for solving subscribers’ churn and retention problem peculiar to most service firms. A conceptual model for unraveling the problem customer churn and retention decision management was proposed and tested with data on third level analysis of AHP for determining appropriate strategies for customer churn and retention in the Nigeria telecommunication industries. A survey was conducted with 408 subscribers; the sample for the study was selected through multi-stage sampling. Two analytical tools were proposed for the analysis of data. These include: Expert Choice/Excel Solver (using Microsoft Excel) and Windows based Quantitative System for Business (WinQSB). This paper plays important role in understanding various strategies for effective churn and retention management and the ranking of churn and retention drivers in order of importance to stakeholders` decision-making. The study provided a framework for understanding the application of AHP and Markov chain for modeling, analysing and proffering solution to problem of churn and retention. The study recommends organizational strategies (corporate, business and functional) that reverse the churn alternatives with high priority and equally strengthen service delivery on high priority retention alternatives in order to ensure firms sustainable competitive advantage. An erratum to this article has been published as https://doi.org/10.5195/emaj.2017.131

Predicción de rotación de clientes en la industria de las telecomunicaciones utilizando métodos de minería de datos

At present, in competitive space between companies and organizations, customers churn is their most important challenge. When a customer becomes churn, organizations lose one of their most important assets, which can lead to financial losses and even bankruptcy.  Customer churn prediction using data mining techniques can alleviate these problems to some extent.  The aim of the present study is to provide a hybrid method based on Genetic Algorithm and Modular Neural Network to customer churn prediction in telecommunication industries and use Irancell data as a sample. The accuracy result of this study which is 95.5% get the highest accuracy rank in comparisons with the result of other methods, which shows using modular neural network with two modules of feedforward neural network and also using genetic algorithm to obtain optimal structure for modules of the neural network are the most important indicators of this method to each the highest accuracy result among the rest of methods.At present, in competitive space between companies and organizations, customers churn is their most important challenge. When a customer becomes churn, organizations lose one of their most important assets, which can lead to financial losses and even bankruptcy.  Customer churn prediction using data mining techniques can alleviate these problems to some extent.  The aim of the present study is to provide a hybrid method based on Genetic Algorithm and Modular Neural Network to customer churn prediction in telecommunication industries and use Irancell data as a sample. The accuracy result of this study which is 95.5% get the highest accuracy rank in comparisons with the result of other methods, which shows using modular neural network with two modules of feedforward neural network and also using genetic algorithm to obtain optimal structure for modules of the neural network are the most important indicators of this method to each the highest accuracy result among the rest of methods

Predicting Customer Preference of Mobile Service using Neural Network

In countries where several Mobile Communication Service providers operate, it is imperative on the service providers to recognize the aspects of their services that will attract new customers in order to help them stay on top of the competition. This is known to be expensive in terms of money and time. To address this problem, we present a Feed-forward Back-propagation Neural Network (FBNN) that is aimed at learning potential customers’ “would-be” pattern of choosing a Mobile Service based on selected criteria. The Neural Network is tested on sample data and predictions made to the same effect as already mentioned. The results show that the Neural Network is adequate for predicting customer preference of a mobile service. This research concentrates on predicting new customer preferences as opposed to the popular notion of models predicting (existing) customer churn. Keywords: Feed-forward Back-propagation, Mobile Service Provider, Neural Network, Prediction