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A quantitative Dynamic Systems model of Health Related Quality of Life among older adults
Mattia Roppolo,1,2 E Saskia Kunnen,2 Paul L van Geert,2 Anna Mulasso,1 Emanuela Rabaglietti1 1Department of Psychology, University of Torino, Torino, Italy; 2Department of Developmental Psychology, Rijksuniversiteit of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands Abstract: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a person-centered concept. The analysis of HRQOL is highly relevant in the aged population, which is generally suffering from health decline. Starting from a conceptual dynamic systems model that describes the development of HRQOL in individuals over time, this study aims to develop and test a quantitative dynamic systems model, in order to reveal the possible dynamic trends of HRQOL among older adults. The model is tested in different ways: first, with a calibration procedure to test whether the model produces theoretically plausible results, and second, with a preliminary validation procedure using empirical data of 194 older adults. This first validation tested the prediction that given a particular starting point (first empirical data point), the model will generate dynamic trajectories that lead to the observed endpoint (second empirical data point). The analyses reveal that the quantitative model produces theoretically plausible trajectories, thus providing support for the calibration procedure. Furthermore, the analyses of validation show a good fit between empirical and simulated data. In fact, no differences were found in the comparison between empirical and simulated final data for the same subgroup of participants, whereas the comparison between different subgroups of people resulted in significant differences. These data provide an initial basis of evidence for the dynamic nature of HRQOL during the aging process. Therefore, these data may give new theoretical and applied insights into the study of HRQOL and its development with time in the aging population. Keywords: older adults, dynamic systems model, nonlinear equations, simulated trajectories, validatio
A computer program for model verification of dynamic systems
Dynamic model verification is the process whereby an analytical model of a dynamic system is compared with experimental data, and then qualified for future use in predicting system response in a different dynamic environment. There are various ways to conduct model verification. The approach adopted in MOVER II employs Bayesian statistical parameter estimation. Unlike curve fitting whose objective is to minimize the difference between some analytical function and a given quantity of test data (or curve), Bayesian estimation attempts also to minimize the difference between the parameter values of that function (the model) and their initial estimates, in a least squares sense. The objectives of dynamic model verification, therefore, are to produce a model which: (1) is in agreement with test data, (2) will assist in the interpretation of test data, (3) can be used to help verify a design, (4) will reliably predict performance, and (5) in the case of space structures, facilitate dynamic control
A Dynamic Game Model of Collective Choice in Multi-Agent Systems
Inspired by successful biological collective decision mechanisms such as
honey bees searching for a new colony or the collective navigation of fish
schools, we consider a mean field games (MFG)-like scenario where a large
number of agents have to make a choice among a set of different potential
target destinations. Each individual both influences and is influenced by the
group's decision, as well as the mean trajectory of all the agents. The model
can be interpreted as a stylized version of opinion crystallization in an
election for example. The agents' biases are dictated first by their initial
spatial position and, in a subsequent generalization of the model, by a
combination of initial position and a priori individual preference. The agents
have linear dynamics and are coupled through a modified form of quadratic cost.
Fixed point based finite population equilibrium conditions are identified and
associated existence conditions are established. In general multiple equilibria
may exist and the agents need to know all initial conditions to compute them
precisely. However, as the number of agents increases sufficiently, we show
that 1) the computed fixed point equilibria qualify as epsilon Nash equilibria,
2) agents no longer require all initial conditions to compute the equilibria
but rather can do so based on a representative probability distribution of
these conditions now viewed as random variables. Numerical results are
reported
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