A Methodology for Identifying Sources of Disparities in the Socio-Economic Impacts of ICT Capabilities in Sub-Saharan Economies

There is general agreement that Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) may deliver transformative socio-economic impacts. However, there is no general agreement on the mechanisms by which the impacts are delivered, for purely efficiency-driven assessment of the impacts leaves many important factors out. To further inquire into the issue of the impact of ICT capabilities, as well as into the factors that may play a role in delivering the impact of such capabilities, we develop and test a methodology for obtaining insights into the context-specific mechanisms by which ICT capabilities are translated into socio-economic outcomes. The methodology is tested in the context of 24 economies of Sub-Saharan Africa

Inequality and gender inclusion:minimum ICT policy thresholds for promoting female employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study assesses how ICT modulates the effect of inequality on female economic participation in a panel of 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004-2014. Three inequality indicators are used, namely: the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio. The adopted ICT indicators are mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions. Three gender economic inclusion indicators are also used for the analysis, namely: female labour force participation, female unemployment and female employment. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy. The findings show that enhancing ICT beyond certain thresholds is necessary for ICT to mitigate inequality in order to enhance gender economic participation. First, for female labour force participation, a minimum threshold of 165.714 mobile phone penetration per 100 people is required for the Palma ratio. Second, minimum ICT thresholds for the reduction of female unemployment are: (i) 87.783, 107.486 and 152.500 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio; (ii) 39.618 internet penetration per 100 people for the Atkinson index and (iii) 4.500 fixed broadband subscriptions for the Palma ratio. Third, the corresponding ICT thresholds for the promotion of female employment are: (i) 120.369 and 85.533 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient and the Atkinson index and (ii) 30.005 internet penetration per 100 people for the Gini coefficient. The established thresholds make economic sense and can be feasibly implemented by policy makers in order to induce favourable effects on gender economic inclusion dynamics.Economic

Inequality, Information Technology and Inclusive Education in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines linkages between inequality, information and communication technology (ICT) and inclusive education in order to establish inequality thresholds that should not be exceeded in order for ICT to promote inclusive education in 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2004-2014. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalized Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, a Gini coefficient and an Atkinson index of respectively, 0.400 and 0.625 are income inequality thresholds that should not be exceeded in order for internet penetration to positively influence inclusive education. Second, a Gini coefficient, an Atkinson index and a Palma ratio of respectively, 0.574, 0.676 and 9.000 are thresholds of income inequality that if exceeded, fixed broadband subscriptions will no longer positively affect inclusive education. As a main policy implication, the established inequality thresholds should not be exceeded in order for ICT to promote inclusive education in sampled countries. Other implications in the light of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are discussed

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Migration Scenario Narratives

A considerable amount of literature has been published on global and migration scenarios in recent decades. Central to the migration scenarios and narratives are the concepts of migration drivers and migration dynamics. Demographic, economic, technological, social, political, and environmental developments and complex interrelations between these domains are considered essential in creating plausible future migration developments. This report provides a set of internally consistent and evidence-based qualitative scenario narratives.The narratives are built on consistent demographic, socio-economic, environmental and political alternate futures generated for the EU and developing countries based on the qualitative and quantitative evidence gathered in the FUME project. Each narrative describes the future for the EU and developing countries in the short-term until 2030 and in the long-term between 2030 and 2050. These alternative futures are complemented by the potential changes in the future migratory demand and pressure from the expert survey conducted in the project and the characteristics of future migrants from the Delphi survey.<br/

Inequality and Gender Inclusion: Minimum ICT Policy Thresholds for Promoting Female Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study assesses how ICT modulates the effect of inequality on female economic participation in a panel of 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004-2014. Three inequality indicators are used, namely: the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio. The adopted ICT indicators are mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions. Three gender economic inclusion indicators are also used for the analysis, namely: female labour force participation, female unemployment and female employment. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy. The findings show that enhancing ICT beyond certain thresholds is necessary for ICT to mitigate inequality in order to enhance gender economic participation. First, for female labour force participation, a minimum threshold of 165.714 mobile phone penetration per 100 people is required for the Palma ratio. Second, minimum ICT thresholds for the reduction of female unemployment are: (i) 87.783, 107.486 and 152.500 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio; (ii) 39.618 internet penetration per 100 people for the Atkinson index and (iii) 4.500 fixed broadband subscriptions for the Palma ratio. Third, the corresponding ICT thresholds for the promotion of female employment are: (i) 120.369 and 85.533 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient and the Atkinson index and (ii) 30.005 internet penetration per 100 people for the Gini coefficient. The established thresholds make economic sense and can be feasibly implemented by policy makers in order to induce favourable effects on gender economic inclusion dynamics

Africa in Transition -- Nexus Between State Building & Regional Integration

Regional integration in Africa is at a nascent stage, despite long-standing interest in continental unification since the Pan-African independence movements. The current surge in continental-wide economic integration builds on previous efforts, yet is markedly different in terms of the ideas, interests, and institutions today. A primary reason for the failure of the first East Africa attempt to integrate was the lack of a strong private sector. Research on African regionalism has focused mostly on limited success, lack of economic growth, and persistent wide-spread poverty. Recent developments present an opportunity to objectively study the gradual evolution in African perspectives and state capacities. This dissertation employs a neo-institutional theoretical construct within a temporal frame to examine factors motivating states to attempt the complicated and potentially risky process of economic competition. Using a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) followed by process-tracing case studies, this research analyzes variables impacting elite bargaining and decision-making. Results demonstrate that conjunctions of certain conditions are at work in creating cooperative institutions, specifically economic pressures, regional insecurity, plus state capacity. These conditions have influenced the evolution of states’ perceptions regarding the potential for integration to maximize states’ welfare as well as national ability to navigate the process. The temporal dimension reveals a change in the relationship between government and business elites is a significant departure from the failed East African attempt in the 1960s. Gradual convergence in national preferences, combined with exogenous support for integration are subtle but measurable. The argument made here is not that regional integration will be successful or that conditions will not change in the future. Rather, this study focuses on the gradual evolution in underlying dynamics influencing changing relations, namely the strengthening interaction between government policymakers and economic powerbrokers. Today, business pressure groups have a vested interest in regional trade and, consequently, an influential role in international politics as theorized by neo-institutionalism. Empirical evidence demonstrates interest in interdependence can drive support for creation of mechanisms conducive to economic integration. Mutually reinforcing forces resulted in observable state direction of resources to enhance economic competitiveness, human capital, and regional security via cooperative regional programs and institutions