Predicting diabetes-related hospitalizations based on electronic health records

OBJECTIVE: To derive a predictive model to identify patients likely to be hospitalized during the following year due to complications attributed to Type II diabetes. METHODS: A variety of supervised machine learning classification methods were tested and a new method that discovers hidden patient clusters in the positive class (hospitalized) was developed while, at the same time, sparse linear support vector machine classifiers were derived to separate positive samples from the negative ones (non-hospitalized). The convergence of the new method was established and theoretical guarantees were proved on how the classifiers it produces generalize to a test set not seen during training. RESULTS: The methods were tested on a large set of patients from the Boston Medical Center - the largest safety net hospital in New England. It is found that our new joint clustering/classification method achieves an accuracy of 89% (measured in terms of area under the ROC Curve) and yields informative clusters which can help interpret the classification results, thus increasing the trust of physicians to the algorithmic output and providing some guidance towards preventive measures. While it is possible to increase accuracy to 92% with other methods, this comes with increased computational cost and lack of interpretability. The analysis shows that even a modest probability of preventive actions being effective (more than 19%) suffices to generate significant hospital care savings. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models are proposed that can help avert hospitalizations, improve health outcomes and drastically reduce hospital expenditures. The scope for savings is significant as it has been estimated that in the USA alone, about $5.8 billion are spent each year on diabetes-related hospitalizations that could be prevented.Accepted manuscrip

Feasibility of multiorgan risk prediction with routinely collected diagnostics: a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank

Objectives: Despite rising rates of multimorbidity, existing risk assessment tools are mostly limited to a single outcome of interest. This study tests the feasibility of producing multiple disease risk estimates with at least 70% discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve, AUROC) within the time and information constraints of the existing primary care health check framework. Design: Observational prospective cohort study Setting: UK Biobank. Participants: 228 240 adults from the UK population. Interventions: None. Main outcome measures: Myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, all-cause dementia, chronic kidney disease, fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, liver cirrhosis and liver failure. Results: Using a set of predictors easily gathered at the standard primary care health check (such as the National Health Service Health Check), we demonstrate that it is feasible to simultaneously produce risk estimates for multiple disease outcomes with AUROC of 70% or greater. These predictors can be entered once into a single form and produce risk scores for stroke (AUROC 0.727, 95% CI 0.713 to 0.740), all-cause dementia (0.823, 95% CI 0.810 to 0.836), myocardial infarction (0.785, 95% CI 0.775 to 0.795), atrial fibrillation (0.777, 95% CI 0.768 to 0.785), heart failure (0.828, 95% CI 0.818 to 0.838), chronic kidney disease (0.774, 95% CI 0.765 to 0.783), fatty liver disease (0.766, 95% CI 0.753 to 0.779), alcoholic liver disease (0.864, 95% CI 0.835 to 0.894), liver cirrhosis (0.763, 95% CI 0.734 to 0.793) and liver failure (0.746, 95% CI 0.695 to 0.796). Conclusions: Easily collected diagnostics can be used to assess 10-year risk across multiple disease outcomes, without the need for specialist computing or invasive biomarkers. Such an approach could increase the utility of existing data and place multiorgan risk information at the fingertips of primary care providers, thus creating opportunities for longer-term multimorbidity prevention. Additional work is needed to validate whether these findings would hold in a larger, more representative cohort outside the UK Biobank