Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool

Chance-Constrained Outage Scheduling using a Machine Learning Proxy

Outage scheduling aims at defining, over a horizon of several months to years, when different components needing maintenance should be taken out of operation. Its objective is to minimize operation-cost expectation while satisfying reliability-related constraints. We propose a distributed scenario-based chance-constrained optimization formulation for this problem. To tackle tractability issues arising in large networks, we use machine learning to build a proxy for predicting outcomes of power system operation processes in this context. On the IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 networks, our solution obtains cheaper and more reliable plans than other candidates

A tutorial on the CARE III approach to reliability modeling

The CARE 3 reliability model for aircraft avionics and control systems is described by utilizing a number of examples which frequently use state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques as a basis for their exposition. Behavioral decomposition followed by aggregration were used in an attempt to deal with reliability models with a large number of states. A comprehensive set of models of the fault-handling processes in a typical fault-tolerant system was used. These models were semi-Markov in nature, thus removing the usual restrictions of exponential holding times within the coverage model. The aggregate model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain, thus allowing the times to failure to posses Weibull-like distributions. Because of the departures from traditional models, the solution method employed is that of Kolmogorov integral equations, which are evaluated numerically

Model-based dependability analysis : state-of-the-art, challenges and future outlook

Abstract: Over the past two decades, the study of model-based dependability analysis has gathered significant research interest. Different approaches have been developed to automate and address various limitations of classical dependability techniques to contend with the increasing complexity and challenges of modern safety-critical system. Two leading paradigms have emerged, one which constructs predictive system failure models from component failure models compositionally using the topology of the system. The other utilizes design models - typically state automata - to explore system behaviour through fault injection. This paper reviews a number of prominent techniques under these two paradigms, and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges, as well as recent developments within these fields. We also discuss the emerging trends on integrated approaches and advanced analysis capabilities. Lastly, we outline the future outlook for model-based dependability analysis

Subcube embeddability and fault tolerance of augmented hypercubes

Hypercube networks have received much attention from both parallel processing and communications areas over the years since they offer a rich interconnection structure with high bandwidth, logarithmic diameter, and high degree of fault tolerance. They are easily partitionable and exhibit a high degree of fault tolerance. Fault-tolerance in hypercube and hypercube-based networks received the attention of several researchers in recent years; The primary idea of this study is to address and analyze the reliability issues in hypercube networks. It is well known that the hypercube can be augmented with one dimension to replace any of the existing dimensions should any dimension fail. In this research, it is shown that it is possible to add i dimensions to the standard hypercube, Qn to tolerate (i - 1) dimension failures, where 0 \u3c i ≤ n. An augmented hypercube, Qn +(n) with n additional dimensions is introduced and compared with two other hypercube networks with the same amount of redundancy. Reliability analysis for the three hypercube networks is done using the combinatorial and Markov modeling. The MTTF values are calculated and compared for all three networks. Comparison between similar size hypercube networks show that the augmented hypercube is more robust than the standard hypercube; As a related problem, we also look at the subcube embeddability. Subcube embeddability of the hypercube can be enhanced by introducing an additional dimension. A set of new dimensions, characterized by the Hamming distance between the pairs of nodes it connects, is introduced using a measure defined as the magnitude of a dimension. An enumeration of subcubes of various sizes is presented for a dimension parameterized by its magnitude. It is shown that the maximum number of subcubes for a Qn can only be attained when the magnitude of dimension is n - 1 or n. It is further shown that the latter two dimensions can optimally increase the number of subcubes among all possible choices

Availability modeling and evaluation on high performance cluster computing systems

Cluster computing has been attracting more and more attention from both the industrial and the academic world for its enormous computing power, cost effective, and scalability. Beowulf type cluster, for example, is a typical High Performance Computing (HPC) cluster system. Availability, as a key attribute of the system, needs to be considered at the system design stage and monitored at mission time. Moreover, system monitoring is a must to help identify the defects and ensure the system\u27s availability requirement. In this study, novel solutions which provide availability modeling, model evaluation, and data analysis as a single framework have been investigated. Three key components in the investigation are availability modeling, model evaluation, and data analysis. The general availability concepts and modeling techniques are briefly reviewed. The system\u27s availability model is divided into submodels based upon their functionalities. Furthermore, an object oriented Markov model specification to facilitate availability modeling and runtime configuration has been developed. Numerical solutions for Markov models are examined, especially on the uniformization method. Alternative implementations of the method are discussed; particularly on analyzing the cost of an alternative solution for small state space model, and different ways for solving large sparse Markov models. The dissertation also presents a monitoring and data analysis framework, which is responsible for failure analysis and availability reconfiguration. In addition, the event logs provided from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have been studied and applied to validate the proposed techniques

A Planning-based Approach for Music Composition

. Automatic music composition is a fascinating field within computational creativity. While different Artificial Intelligence techniques have been used for tackling this task, Planning – an approach for solving complex combinatorial problems which can count on a large number of high-performance systems and an expressive language for describing problems – has never been exploited. In this paper, we propose two different techniques that rely on automated planning for generating musical structures. The structures are then filled from the bottom with “raw” musical materials, and turned into melodies. Music experts evaluated the creative output of the system, acknowledging an overall human-enjoyable trait of the melodies produced, which showed a solid hierarchical structure and a strong musical directionality. The techniques proposed not only have high relevance for the musical domain, but also suggest unexplored ways of using planning for dealing with non-deterministic creative domains

A Hierarchical Approach for Dynamic Fault Trees Solution Through Semi-Markov Process

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) is a top-down deductive technique extended to model systems with complex failure behaviors and interactions. In two last decades, different methods have been applied to improve its capabilities, such as computational complexity reduction, modularization, intricate failure distribution, and reconfiguration. This paper uses semi-Markov process (SMP) theorem for DFT solution with the motivation of obviating the model state-explosion, considering nonexponential failure distribution through a hierarchical solution. In addition, in the proposed method, a universal SMP for static and dynamic gates is introduced, which can generalize dynamic behaviors like functional dependencies, sequences, priorities, and spares in a single model. The efficiency of the method regarding precision and competitiveness with commercial tools, repeated events consideration, computational complexity reduction, nonexponential failure distribution consideration, and repairable events in DFT is studied by a number of examples, and the results are then compared to those of the selected existing methods