Electrical grid risk assessment against flooding in Barcelona and Bristol cities

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and, consequently, flooding in urban and peri-urban areas. The electrical grid is exposed to an increase in fault probability because its infrastructure was designed considering historical frequencies of extreme events occurred in the past. In this respect, to ensure future energy plans and securing services is of great relevance to determine and evaluate the new zones that may be under risk and its relation to critical infrastructures for such extreme events. In this regard, the electrical distribution system is one of the key critical infrastructures since it feeds the others and with the future plans of zero-emissions (leading to the electrification of transport, buildings, renewable energies, etc.) will become even more important in the short term. In this paper, a novel methodology has been developed, able to analyze flood hazard maps quantifying the probability of failure risk of the electrical assets and their potential impacts using a probabilistic approach. Furthermore, a process to monetize the consequences of the yielded risk was established. The whole method developed was applied to the Barcelona and Bristol case study cities. In this way, two different examples of application have been undertaken by using slightly different inputs. Two main inputs were required: (1) the development of accurate GIS hazard flooding models; and (2) the location of the electrical assets (i.e., Distribution Centers (DCs)). To assess and monetize the flood risk to DCs, a variety of variables and tools were required such as water depths (i.e., flood maps), DCs’ areas of influence, fragility curves, and damage curves. The analysis was performed for different return periods under different scenarios, current (Baseline) and future (Business As Usual (BAU)) rainfall conditions. The number of DCs affected was quantified and classified into different categories of risk, where up to 363 were affected in Barcelona and 623 in Bristol. Their risk monetization resulted in maximums of 815,700 € in Barcelona and 643,500 € in Bristol. Finally, the percentage of risk increases when considering future rainfall conditions (i.e., BAU) when calculated, resulting in a 2.38% increase in Barcelona and 3.37% increase in Bristol, which in monetary terms would be an average of a 22% increase.This research was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (RESCCUE project), grant number 700174. The authors want to acknowledge to the RESCCUE project where this research is framed. Also, to all the organizations that transferred the necessary data to carry out this study, in special, Western Power Distribution in UK and Endesa in Spain for the electrical data, Aquatec in Spain and Bristol City Council in UK for the flooding models and to the Bristol and Barcelona city councils for developing the Open Data Portals from where basic data was taken.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A Hazus-Based Method for Assessing Robustness of Electricity Supply to Critical Smart Grid Consumers during Flood Events

Ensuring an external electricity supply to critical city components during flood events requires adequate urban grid planning. The proliferation of smart grid technologies means that such planning needs to assess how smart grids might function during floods. This paper proposes a method to qualitatively investigate robustness of electricity supply to smart grid consumers during flood events. This method builds on the Hazus methodology and aims to provide inputs for the risk analysis of urban grids