A Temporal Framework for Hypergame Analysis of Cyber Physical Systems in Contested Environments

Game theory is used to model conflicts between one or more players over resources. It offers players a way to reason, allowing rationale for selecting strategies that avoid the worst outcome. Game theory lacks the ability to incorporate advantages one player may have over another player. A meta-game, known as a hypergame, occurs when one player does not know or fully understand all the strategies of a game. Hypergame theory builds upon the utility of game theory by allowing a player to outmaneuver an opponent, thus obtaining a more preferred outcome with higher utility. Recent work in hypergame theory has focused on normal form static games that lack the ability to encode several realistic strategies. One example of this is when a player’s available actions in the future is dependent on his selection in the past. This work presents a temporal framework for hypergame models. This framework is the first application of temporal logic to hypergames and provides a more flexible modeling for domain experts. With this new framework for hypergames, the concepts of trust, distrust, mistrust, and deception are formalized. While past literature references deception in hypergame research, this work is the first to formalize the definition for hypergames. As a demonstration of the new temporal framework for hypergames, it is applied to classical game theoretical examples, as well as a complex supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) network temporal hypergame. The SCADA network is an example includes actions that have a temporal dependency, where a choice in the first round affects what decisions can be made in the later round of the game. The demonstration results show that the framework is a realistic and flexible modeling method for a variety of applications

Empirical Game Theoretic Models for Autonomous Driving: Methods and Applications

In recent years, there has been enormous public interest in autonomous vehicles (AV), with more than 80 billion dollars invested in self-driving car technology. However, for the foreseeable future, self-driving cars will interact with human driven vehicles and other human road users, such as pedestrians and cyclists. Therefore, in order to ensure safe operation of AVs, there is need for computational models of humans traffic behaviour that can be used for testing and verification of autonomous vehicles. Game theoretic models of human driving behaviour is a promising computational tool that can be used in many phases of AV development. However, traditional game theoretic models are typically built around the idea of rationality, i.e., selection of the most optimal action based on individual preferences. In reality, not only is it hard to infer diverse human preferences from observational data, but real-world traffic shows that humans rarely choose the most optimal action that a computational model suggests. The thesis makes a set of methodological contributions towards modelling sub-optimality in driving behaviour within a game theoretic framework. These include solution concepts that account for boundedly rational behaviour in hierarchical games, addressing challenges of bounded rationality in dynamic games, and estimation of multi-objective utility aggregation from observational data. Each of these contributions are evaluated based on a novel multi-agent traffic dataset. Building on the game theoretic models, the second part of the thesis demonstrates the application of the models by developing novel safety validation methodologies for testing AV planners. The first application is an automated generation of interpretable variations of lane change behaviour based on Quantal Best Response model. The proposed model is shown to be effective for generating both rare-event situations and to replicate the typical behaviour distribution observed in naturalistic data. The second application is safety validation of strategic planners in situations of dynamic occlusion. Using the concept of hypergames, in which different agents have different views of the game, the thesis develops a new safety surrogate metric, dynamic occlusion risk (DOR), that can be used to evaluate the risk associated with each action in situations of dynamic occlusion. The thesis concludes with a taxonomy of strategic interactions that maps complex design specific strategies in a game to a simpler taxonomy of traffic interactions. Regulations around what strategies an AV should execute in traffic can be developed over the simpler taxonomy, and a process of automated mapping can protect the proprietary design decisions of an AV manufacturer

Studying Economic Sanctions Using The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The methodology of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is improved to show how a Graph Model can account for strength of sanctions, to introduce a trigger option to simplify a model, and to connect a Graph Model with the concept of BATNA (Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement). Two real life applications are provided to illustrate these advances: the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)/US Shale oil producers conflict, and the North-South Sudan oil pipeline dispute. Sometimes disputants attempt to manipulate behavior by threatening sanctions. Clearly, the success of this threat depends on the strength of the sanctions. This type of conflict is represented in this thesis by two identical graphs with different preferences reflecting the strength of the sanction. Both of the real world conflicts examples are analyzed in this way. The concept of a Conflict Trigger (CT) is introduced to simplify a Graph Model. If the CT is selected, the number of states in the model can be significantly reduced, thereby, simplifying the analysis. The North/South Sudan conflict illustrates the employment of a CT for reducing the complexity of the analysis. BATNA is a widely utilized principle used in the analysis of negotiations. Because many negotiations can be captured in a Graph Model, it is reasonable to ask how BATNA is connected. The four steps of BATNA are compared to a typical Graph Model of a negotiation to identify similarities and differences. The use of BATNA’s reservation value in combination with a Graph Model of a negotiation gives insight into when a negotiator would accept an offer. The application of BATNA in the North/South Sudan conflict demonstrates its value

Integration system: A problem-solving framework for seeking stability in complex conflictual situations

The thesis examines some of the methodologies used for conflict study and analysis; it reviews Operational Research based approaches and methodologies from other areas of study that have been, and are still being used for the study and analysis of conflict situations in complex systems. The thesis argues against the prevalent use of single methodologies for such systems, and calls for the adoption of approaches that allows the use of multiple methodologies, which would place the emphasis on the "problem" rather than on any particular approach or methodology.The nature, causes and effects, ecology of conflict, and the concept of issue relevance and irrelevance are examined as well as the role of perceptions. The factors determining thedevelopment, level and scope of conflicts are reviewed with the aim of ascertaining their importance to conflict outcomes andwhen meaningful intervention could be made during conflict situations. Various outcomes of conflict, primarily management, dissolution, and resolution are discussed and their relative strengths and weaknesses as strategies for handling conflicts.Case studies are used to examine and support arguments about how different conflict outcomes arise and some proposals are made for the study of alternative futures. It is argued that undesired conflicts could be reduced or prevented in complex interaction systems through the deliberate design and incorporation, into such systems, of structures and mechanisms that will serve as integration systems. These integration systems involve all the parties in an interaction system and are intended to reconcile views, clarify positions, inform the parties about each other and assist in the formulation of joint responses to negative internal and external stimuli.An outline structure of an integration system is given and how it could be developed in a system. Many methodologies and approaches are based on the premise of a "prima facie" existence of a conflict; a tool is suggested in the thesis that will assist analysts, observers, or any interested party to monitor the relationship in an interaction system. This tool concerns what I have called the Y-points and Y-diagrams. The Y-concepts are based on the notion that there are periods in an interaction when a decision can be consciously taken to escalate or de-escalate a situation.The approach advocated in the thesis is based on two assumptions: the first is that the parties prefer a "normal" relationship to a conflictual one, the second is that the parties in a conflict would prefer the resolution of a conflict and its attendant stability to an unending management of the situation. Consequently, the main thrust of the arguments in the thesis is on conflict resolution and the design of stability into complex interaction systems.<p

A network-based framework for strategic conflict resolution

Strategic conflict in this work refers to the spectrum of co-operative and oppositional activities in which organisations engage when their interests meet. The origin of the work is in the management and prediction of corporate strategic conflict, but it will be seen that there are significant similarities between corporate struggle and that of international relations. Following a review of the nature of conflict and the characteristics of strategic decision making, the work examines the effectiveness of three existing general approaches to conflict modelling and management, namely informal and qualitative methods; general systems analysis methods; and game theoretic approaches. Desirable criteria for a strategic conflict management framework are derived and a framework is then proposed which has three components: - Setting thefuture environment The future of the organisation is described by a network of states of nature. Resolving the Conflict Within each of the states which represent the future, the options for participants are identified and the possible outcomes and interim states identified. An analysis of the influence and power of the participants over transitions between states is carried out, which indicates likely development paths in the conflict, from which conclusions can be drawn about both the likely outcomes, and about the actions which should be taken by a company to bring about preferred outcomes. Closing the Loop Feedback of information obtained by analysis and by contact with the real world back into the two structures described above allows examination of the effect of changing perspectives and the differing beliefs of participants. The application of the framework is shown through case studies examining thejustifiability and appropriateness of each of its elements and as a whole. These case studies cover both small and large companies, a variety of business conflict cases, both live and retrospective and draw on the recorded material in international relations for examples of non- . commercial conflict. Future development paths are identified for the conceptEThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Power asymmetry in conflict resolution with application to a water pollution dispute in China

© 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article:Yu, J., Kilgour, D. M., Hipel, K. W., & Zhao, M. (2015). Power asymmetry in conflict resolution with application to a water pollution dispute in China. Water Resources Research, 51(10), 8627–8645, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016257The concept of power asymmetry is incorporated into the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) and then applied to a water pollution dispute in China in order to show how it can provide strategic insights into courses of action. In a new definition of power asymmetry, one of the decision makers (DMs) in a conflict can influence the preferences of other DMs by taking advantage of additional options reflecting the particular DM's more powerful position. The more powerful DM may have three different kinds of power: direct positive, direct negative, or indirect. It is useful to analyze a model of a conflict without power asymmetry, and then to analyze a power-asymmetric model. As demonstrated by analysis of the water quality controversy that took place at the border separating the Chinese provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, this novel conflict resolution methodology can be readily applied to real-world strategic conflicts to gain an enhanced understanding of the effects of asymmetric power.National Natural Science Foundation of China [71471087]Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canad

An object-oriented approach to structuring multicriteria decision support in natural resource management problems

Includes bibliographical references.The undertaking of MCDM (Multicriteria Decision Making) and the development of DSSs (Decision Support Systems) tend to be complex and inefficient, leading to low productivity in decision analysis and DSSs. Towards this end, this study has developed an approach based on object orientation for MCDM and DSS modelling, with the emphasis on natural resource management. The object-oriented approach provides a philosophy to model decision analysis and DSSs in a uniform way, as shown by the diagrams presented in this study. The solving of natural resource management decision problems, the MCDM decision making procedure and decision making activities are modelled in an object-oriented way. The macro decision analysis system, its DSS, the decision problem, the decision context, and the entities in the decision making procedure are represented as "objects". The object-oriented representation of decision analysis also constitutes the basis for the analysis ofDSSs

Problem structuring methods for development: A conceptual clarification with an application to participative health services planning in Mexico.

Participatory development planning methods (PDPMs) have been developed within the 'people-centred' approach to development. Independently, problem structuring methods (PSMs) have been developed within operational research (OR). Both families of methods claim to assist empowerment and participation. Nevertheless, these concepts are used in ill-defined or even contradictory ways. The aim of this research is to explore to what extent claims made that PSMs can assist in development in the Third World are justified. The hypothesis developed and adopted during this research is that the analytic assistance provided by PSMs can be expected to contribute to a process of empowerment of the disadvantaged principally through improving participants' understanding of their problematic situation, and through providing structure to this understanding. PSMs generate this effect through improving the quality of dialogue between participants. Other more indirect expected effects are also identified. In combination, these effects should tend to impact positively on commitments to a course of action, and on longer term increases in self-power. In order to articulate this hypothesis it has been necessary to conduct some conceptual clarification to achieve a clear meaning for the terms "power", "self-power", "participation", "empowerment", and "spaces for dialogue". Using this as a base, a conceptual model of empowerment as a process has been developed, which identifies the factors, pre-requisites and processes involved in disadvantaged social actors' ability to maintain or augment their self-power. This model provides the bases for identifying the possible effects of PSMs, and for evaluating their effectiveness. To explore both our hypothesis and the adequacy of the conceptual model, a case study of the application of one PSM - the Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) - in a grassroots situation was carried out. This involved engagement in and observation of ongoing developmental activity of the Community Health Committee in a small town in Mexico. Reasonably clear and positive effects from the application of SCA were found in several model elements, consistent with the hypothesis. The effects in other elements were more ambiguous. Overall the results of the case study are encouraging; however, as they result from the application of a particular PSM, extrapolation to more general conclusions about the potential of PSMs to empower disadvantaged social actors should be made with caution. The case experience also was generally supportive of the conceptual model of empowerment, in that observed activities and processes could be interpreted unproblematically within the model's framework. The model offers a vehicle for further research aimed at confirming and enriching its structure