3 research outputs found
ΠΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ STS-ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠΎΠ½Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΠΈΠ½Π΄Π΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠ²
Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ STS_GARCH(1,1). ΠΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π·Π°ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ°Π»Π°ΡΡ Π² ΠΎΡΠΊΠ°Π·Π΅ ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎ Π½ΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ Π·Π°ΠΊΠΎΠ½Π΅ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π»ΠΎΠ³Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΌΠΎΠ² Π΄Π½Π΅Π²Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠ΄Π° ΠΈ Π² ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ Smoothly Truncated A-Stable (STS)-ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ (Π³Π»Π°Π΄ΠΊΠΎ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ A-ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ). ΠΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° Π½Π°ΠΉΠ΄Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π΄ΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π°Π΄Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΠ° ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
, ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π΄Π»Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ΅Π½ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΉ Π ΠΠ ΠΠΠ‘ Π Π’Π‘ Ρ Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΌ 5
Application of one-dimension STS-distribution for modelling magnitudes of stock indexes
Modified method STS-GARCH(1,1) has been considered. Modification consisted in rejection of the statement on normal low of logarithm distribution of time series day increment and in their application for the description of Smoothly Truncated a-Stable (STS)-distribution (smoothly abridged a-stable). The method parameters were found by the technique of maximum likelihood. Statistic investigation of the suggested algorithm accuracy was carried out and decrease of autocorrelation in data structure used for the analysis was shown. The method was used to predict share prices of lag 5