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A variational approach to path estimation and parameter inference of hidden diffusion processes
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a
diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The
article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of
the signal process given the full set of observations. This, in particular,
leads to systematic approximations of the smoothing densities of the signal
process. The paper then demonstrates how an efficient inference scheme, based
on this variational approach to the approximation of the hidden states, can be
designed to estimate the unknown parameters of stochastic differential
equations. Two examples at the end illustrate the efficacy and the accuracy of
the presented method.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figures, revise
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