A Family of Computationally Efficient and Simple Estimators for Unnormalized Statistical Models

Peer reviewe

Imputation estimators for unnormalized models with missing data

Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to combine imputation techniques with estimators for unnormalized models including noise contrastive estimation and score matching. In addition, we derive asymptotic distributions of the proposed estimators and construct confidence intervals. Simulation results with truncated Gaussian graphical models and the application to real data of wind direction reveal that the proposed methods effectively enable statistical inference with unnormalized models from missing data.Comment: To appear (AISTATS 2020

Fixed-Form Variational Posterior Approximation through Stochastic Linear Regression

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method can be used to approximate any posterior distribution, provided that it is given in closed form up to the proportionality constant. The approximation can be any distribution in the exponential family or any mixture of such distributions, which means that it can be made arbitrarily precise. Several examples illustrate the speed and accuracy of our approximation method in practice

Computationally Efficient Nonparametric Importance Sampling

The variance reduction established by importance sampling strongly depends on the choice of the importance sampling distribution. A good choice is often hard to achieve especially for high-dimensional integration problems. Nonparametric estimation of the optimal importance sampling distribution (known as nonparametric importance sampling) is a reasonable alternative to parametric approaches.In this article nonparametric variants of both the self-normalized and the unnormalized importance sampling estimator are proposed and investigated. A common critique on nonparametric importance sampling is the increased computational burden compared to parametric methods. We solve this problem to a large degree by utilizing the linear blend frequency polygon estimator instead of a kernel estimator. Mean square error convergence properties are investigated leading to recommendations for the efficient application of nonparametric importance sampling. Particularly, we show that nonparametric importance sampling asymptotically attains optimal importance sampling variance. The efficiency of nonparametric importance sampling algorithms heavily relies on the computational efficiency of the employed nonparametric estimator. The linear blend frequency polygon outperforms kernel estimators in terms of certain criteria such as efficient sampling and evaluation. Furthermore, it is compatible with the inversion method for sample generation. This allows to combine our algorithms with other variance reduction techniques such as stratified sampling. Empirical evidence for the usefulness of the suggested algorithms is obtained by means of three benchmark integration problems. As an application we estimate the distribution of the queue length of a spam filter queueing system based on real data.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figure

Population annealing: Theory and application in spin glasses

Population annealing is an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for simulating equilibrium states of systems with rough free energy landscapes. The theory of population annealing is presented, and systematic and statistical errors are discussed. The behavior of the algorithm is studied in the context of large-scale simulations of the three-dimensional Ising spin glass and the performance of the algorithm is compared to parallel tempering. It is found that the two algorithms are similar in efficiency though with different strengths and weaknesses.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 4 table