Exact Inference Techniques for the Analysis of Bayesian Attack Graphs

Attack graphs are a powerful tool for security risk assessment by analysing network vulnerabilities and the paths attackers can use to compromise network resources. The uncertainty about the attacker's behaviour makes Bayesian networks suitable to model attack graphs to perform static and dynamic analysis. Previous approaches have focused on the formalization of attack graphs into a Bayesian model rather than proposing mechanisms for their analysis. In this paper we propose to use efficient algorithms to make exact inference in Bayesian attack graphs, enabling the static and dynamic network risk assessments. To support the validity of our approach we have performed an extensive experimental evaluation on synthetic Bayesian attack graphs with different topologies, showing the computational advantages in terms of time and memory use of the proposed techniques when compared to existing approaches.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figure

Efficient Attack Graph Analysis through Approximate Inference

Attack graphs provide compact representations of the attack paths that an attacker can follow to compromise network resources by analysing network vulnerabilities and topology. These representations are a powerful tool for security risk assessment. Bayesian inference on attack graphs enables the estimation of the risk of compromise to the system's components given their vulnerabilities and interconnections, and accounts for multi-step attacks spreading through the system. Whilst static analysis considers the risk posture at rest, dynamic analysis also accounts for evidence of compromise, e.g. from SIEM software or forensic investigation. However, in this context, exact Bayesian inference techniques do not scale well. In this paper we show how Loopy Belief Propagation - an approximate inference technique - can be applied to attack graphs, and that it scales linearly in the number of nodes for both static and dynamic analysis, making such analyses viable for larger networks. We experiment with different topologies and network clustering on synthetic Bayesian attack graphs with thousands of nodes to show that the algorithm's accuracy is acceptable and converge to a stable solution. We compare sequential and parallel versions of Loopy Belief Propagation with exact inference techniques for both static and dynamic analysis, showing the advantages of approximate inference techniques to scale to larger attack graphs.Comment: 30 pages, 14 figure

Vulnerability-Based Impact Criticality Estimation for Industrial Control Systems

Cyber threats directly affect the critical reliability and availability of modern Industry Control Systems (ICS) in respects of operations and processes. Where there are a variety of vulnerabilities and cyber threats, it is necessary to effectively evaluate cyber security risks, and control uncertainties of cyber environments, and quantitative evaluation can be helpful. To effectively and timely control the spread and impact produced by attacks on ICS networks, a probabilistic Multi-Attribute Vulnerability Criticality Analysis (MAVCA) model for impact estimation and prioritised remediation is presented. This offer a new approach for combining three major attributes: vulnerability severities influenced by environmental factors, the attack probabilities relative to the vulnerabilities, and functional dependencies attributed to vulnerability host components. A miniature ICS testbed evaluation illustrates the usability of the model for determining the weakest link and setting security priority in the ICS. This work can help create speedy and proactive security response. The metrics derived in this work can serve as sub-metrics inputs to a larger quantitative security metrics taxonomy; and can be integrated into the security risk assessment scheme of a larger distributed system

Security threat probability computation using Markov Chain and Common Vulnerability Scoring System

© 2018 IEEE. Security metrics have become essential for assessing the security risks and making effective decisions concerning system security. Many security metrics rely on mathematical models, but are mainly based on empirical data, qualitative method, or compliance checking and this renders the outcome far from accurate. This paper proposes a novel approach to compute the probability distribution of cloud security threats based on Markov chain and Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The paper gives an application on cloud systems to demonstrate the use of the proposed approach

Risk Assessment in IT Infrastructure

Due to large-scale digitization of data and information in various application domains, the evolution of ubiquitous computing platforms and the growth and usage of the Internet, industries are moving towards a new era of technology. With this revolution, the IT infrastructure of industries is rapidly undergoing a continuous change. However, the insecure communication channel; intelligent adversaries in and out of the scene; and loopholes in the software and system development add complexity in deployment of the IT infrastructure in place. In addition, the heterogeneous service level requirements from the customers, service providers, users, along with implementation policies in industries add complexity to this problem. Hence, it is necessary to assess the risk associated with the deployment of the IT infrastructure in industries to ensure the security of the assets involved. In this chapter, we present an efficient risk assessment mechanism in IT infrastructure deployment in industries, which ensures a strong security perimeter over the underlying organizational resources

A Threat Computation Model using a Markov Chain and Common Vulnerability Scoring System and its Application to Cloud Security

Copyright © 2019 Securing cyber infrastructures has become critical because they are increasingly exposed to attackers while accommodating a huge number of IoT devices and supporting numerous sophisticated emerging applications. Security metrics are essential for assessing the security risks and making effective decisions concerning system security. Many security metrics rely on mathematical models, but are mainly based on empirical data, qualitative methods, or compliance checking, and this renders the outcome far from satisfactory. Computing the probability of an attack, or more precisely a threat that materialises into an attack, forms an essential basis for a quantitative security metric. This paper proposes a novel approach to compute the probability distribution of cloud security threats based on a Markov chain and Common Vulnerability Scoring System. Moreover, the paper introduces the method to estimate the probability of security attacks. The use of the new security threat model and its computation is demonstrated through their application to estimating the probabilities of cloud threats and types of attacks

Towards an efficient vulnerability analysis methodology for better security risk management

2010 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Risk management is a process that allows IT managers to balance between cost of the protective measures and gains in mission capability. A system administrator has to make a decision and choose an appropriate security plan that maximizes the resource utilization. However, making the decision is not a trivial task. Most organizations have tight budgets for IT security; therefore, the chosen plan must be reviewed as thoroughly as other management decisions. Unfortunately, even the best-practice security risk management frameworks do not provide adequate information for effective risk management. Vulnerability scanning and penetration testing that form the core of traditional risk management, identify only the set of system vulnerabilities. Given the complexity of today's network infrastructure, it is not enough to consider the presence or absence of vulnerabilities in isolation. Materializing a threat strongly requires the combination of multiple attacks using different vulnerabilities. Such a requirement is far beyond the capabilities of current day vulnerability scanners. Consequently, assessing the cost of an attack or cost of implementing appropriate security controls is possible only in a piecemeal manner. In this work, we develop and formalize new network vulnerability analysis model. The model encodes in a concise manner, the contributions of different security conditions that lead to system compromise. We extend the model with a systematic risk assessment methodology to support reasoning under uncertainty in an attempt to evaluate the vulnerability exploitation probability. We develop a cost model to quantify the potential loss and gain that can occur in a system if certain conditions are met (or protected). We also quantify the security control cost incurred to implement a set of security hardening measures. We propose solutions for the system administrator's decision problems covering the area of the risk analysis and risk mitigation analysis. Finally, we extend the vulnerability assessment model to the areas of intrusion detection and forensic investigation