Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system

Simulation of steady-state availability models of fault-tolerant systems with deferred repair

This paper targets the simulation of continuous-time Markov chain models of fault-tolerant systems with deferred repair. We start by stating sufficient conditions for a given importance sampling scheme to satisfy the bounded relative error property. Using those sufficient conditions, it is noted that many previously proposed importance sampling schemes such as failure biasing and balanced failure biasing satisfy that property. Then, we adapt the importance sampling schemes failure transition distance biasing and balanced failure transition distance biasing so as to develop new importance sampling schemes which can be implemented with moderate effort and at the same time can be proved to be more efficient for balanced systems than the simpler failure biasing and balanced failure biasing schemes. The increased efficiency for balanced and unbalanced systems of the new adapted importance sampling schemes is illustrated using examples.Preprin

Adapted importance sampling schemes for the simulation of dependability models of Fault-tolerant systems with deferred repair

This paper targets the simulation of continuous-time Markov chain models of fault-tolerant systems with deferred repair. We start by stating sufficient conditions for a given importance sampling scheme to satisfy the bounded relative error property. Using those sufficient conditions, it is noted that many previously proposed importance sampling techniques such as failure biasing and balanced failure biasing satisfy that property. Then, we adapt the importance sampling schemes failure transition distance biasing and balanced failure transition distance biasing so as to develop new importance sampling schemes which can be implemented with moderate effort and at the same time can be proved to be more efficient for balanced systems than the simpler failure biasing and balanced failure biasing schemes. The increased efficiency for both balanced and unbalanced systems of the new adapted importance sampling schemes is illustrated using examples.Postprint (published version

A review of Monte Carlo simulations of polymers with PERM

In this review, we describe applications of the pruned-enriched Rosenbluth method (PERM), a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm with resampling, to various problems in polymer physics. PERM produces samples according to any given prescribed weight distribution, by growing configurations step by step with controlled bias, and correcting "bad" configurations by "population control". The latter is implemented, in contrast to other population based algorithms like e.g. genetic algorithms, by depth-first recursion which avoids storing all members of the population at the same time in computer memory. The problems we discuss all concern single polymers (with one exception), but under various conditions: Homopolymers in good solvents and at the $\Theta$ point, semi-stiff polymers, polymers in confining geometries, stretched polymers undergoing a forced globule-linear transition, star polymers, bottle brushes, lattice animals as a model for randomly branched polymers, DNA melting, and finally -- as the only system at low temperatures, lattice heteropolymers as simple models for protein folding. PERM is for some of these problems the method of choice, but it can also fail. We discuss how to recognize when a result is reliable, and we discuss also some types of bias that can be crucial in guiding the growth into the right directions.Comment: 29 pages, 26 figures, to be published in J. Stat. Phys. (2011

Development of radiation transport techniques for modelling a high-resolution multi-energy photon emission tomography system

”Nondestructive characterization techniques such as gamma tomography represent powerful tools for the analysis and quantification of physical defects and radionuclide concentrations within nuclear fuel forms. Gamma emission tomography, in particular, has the ability to utilize the inherent radiation within spent nuclear fuel to provide users with information about the migration and concentration of fission and activation products within the fuel form. Idaho National Laboratory is interested in using this technology to analyze new nuclear fuel forms for potential use in next generation nuclear reactors. In this work, two aspect of the system are analyzed. The first is a semi-analytic radiation transport methodology in conjunction with a parallel beam collimator developed to facilitate the acquisition of data from Monte-Carlo modeling of a small submersible gamma tomography system, with a focus on emission information. The second is a pinhole collimator designed to optimize count rates, diameter, and acceptance angle to increase the sampling of the fuel forms to decrease data acquisition time. Utilizing the semi-analytical technique, computational savings of 107-1011 can be achieved with a degradation in accuracy of 1845% compared to a standard isotropic uniform Monte-Carlo N Particle transport simulation. However, this loss in accuracy can be minimized by increasing the parallel beam collimator’s aspect ratio where it tends towards a degenerate cylinder. The semianalytic technique is also compared to inbuilt acceleration techniques. The pinhole collimator design yields count rates on the order of 100s-1000s which represents a 101-102 increase in actual count rates over the entirety of the photon spectrum”--Abstract, page iv

Estimation of binding free energies with Monte Carlo atomistic simulations and enhanced sampling

The advances in computing power have motivated the hope that computational methods can accelerate the pace of drug discovery pipelines. For this, fast, reliable and user-friendly tools are required. One of the fields that has gotten more attentions is the prediction of binding affinities. Two main problems have been identified for such methods: insufficient sampling and inaccurate models. This thesis is focused on tackling the first problem. To this end, we present the development of efficient methods for the estimation of protein-ligand binding free energies. We have developed a protocol that combines enhanced sampling with more standard simulations methods to achieve higher efficiency. First, we run an exploratory enhanced sampling simulation, starting from the bound conformation and partially biased towards unbound poses. The we leverage the information gained from this short simulation to run, longer unbiased simulations to collect statistics. Thanks to the modularity and automation that the protocol offers we were able to test three different methods for the long simulations: PELE, molecular dynamics and AdaptivePELE. PELE and molecular dynamics showed similar results, although PELE used less computational resources. Both seemed to work well with small protein-fragment systems or proteins with not very flexible binding sites. Both failed to accurately reproduce the binding of a kinase, the Mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (ERK2). On the other hand, AdaptivePELE did not show a great improvement over PELE, with positive results for the Urokinase-type plasminogen activator (URO) and a clear lack of sampling for the Progesterone receptor (PR). We demonstrated the importance of well-designed suite of test systems for the development of new methods. Through the use of a diverse benchmark of protein systems we have established the cases in which the protocol is expected to give accurate results, and which areas require further development. This benchmark consisted of four proteins, and over 30 ligands, much larger than the test systems typically used in the development of pathway-based free energy methods. In summary, the methodology developed in this work can contribute to the drug discovery process for a limited range of protein systems. For many other, we have observed that regular unbiased simulations are not efficient enough and more sophisticated, enhanced sampling methods are required.Els grans avenços en la capacitat de computació han motivat l'esperança que els mètodes de simulacions per ordinador puguin accelerar el ritme de descobriment de nous fàrmacs. Per a què això sigui possible, es necessiten eines ràpides, acurades i fàcils d'utilitzar. Un dels problemes que han rebut més atenció és el de la predicció d'energies lliures d'unió entre proteïna i lligand. Dos grans problemes han estat identificats per a aquests mètodes: la falta de mostreig i les aproximacions dels models. Aquesta tesi està enfocada a resoldre el primer problema. Per a això, presentem el desenvolupament de mètodes eficients per a l'estimació de d'energies lliures d'unió entre proteïna i lligand. Hem desenvolupat un protocol que combina mètodes anomenats enhanced sampling amb simulació clàssiques per a obtenir una major eficiència. Els mètodes d'enhanced sampling són una classe d'eines que apliquen algun tipus de pertorbació externa al sistema que s'està estudiant per tal d'accelerar-ne el mostreig. En el nostre protocol, primer correm una simulació exploratòria d'enhanced sampling, començant per una mostra de la unió de la proteïna i el lligand. Aquesta simulació esta parcialment esbiaixada cap a aquells estats del sistema on els dos components es troben més separats. Després utilitzem la informació obtinguda d'aquesta primera simulació més curta per a córrer una segona simulació més llarga, amb mètodes sense biaix per obtenir una estadística fidedigna del sistema. Gràcies a la modularitat i el grau d'automatització que la implementació del protocol ofereix, hem pogut provar tres mètodes diferents per les simulacions llargues: PELE, dinàmica molecular i AdaptivePELE. PELE i dinàmica molecular han mostrat resultats similars, tot i que PELE utilitza menys recursos. Els dos han mostrat bons resultats en l'estudi de sistemes de fragments o amb proteïnes amb llocs d'unió poc flexibles. Però, els dos han fallat a l'hora de reproduir els resultats experimentals per a una quinasa, la Mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (ERK2). D'altra banda, AdaptivePELE no ha mostrat una gran millora respecte a PELE, amb resultats positius per a la proteïna Urokinase-type plasminogen activator (URO) i una clara falta de mostreig per al receptor de progesterona (PR). En aquest treball hem demostrat la importància d'establir un banc de proves equilibrat durant el desenvolupament de nous mètodes. Mitjançant l'ús d'un banc de proves divers hem pogut establir en quins casos es pot esperar que el protocol obtingui resultats acurats, i quines àrees necessiten més desenvolupament. El banc de proves ha consistit de quatre proteïnes i més de trenta lligands, molt més dels que comunament s'utilitzen en el desenvolupament de mètodes per a la predicció d'energies d'unió mitjançant mètodes basats en camins (pathway-based). En resum, la metodologia desenvolupada durant aquesta tesi pot contribuir al procés de recerca de nous fàrmacs per a certs tipus de sistemes de proteïnes. Per a la resta, hem observat que els mètodes de simulació no esbiaixats no són prou eficients i tècniques més sofisticades són necessàries.Postprint (published version

Estimation of binding free energies with Monte Carlo atomistic simulations and enhanced sampling

The advances in computing power have motivated the hope that computational methods can accelerate the pace of drug discovery pipelines. For this, fast, reliable and user-friendly tools are required. One of the fields that has gotten more attentions is the prediction of binding affinities. Two main problems have been identified for such methods: insufficient sampling and inaccurate models. This thesis is focused on tackling the first problem. To this end, we present the development of efficient methods for the estimation of protein-ligand binding free energies. We have developed a protocol that combines enhanced sampling with more standard simulations methods to achieve higher efficiency. First, we run an exploratory enhanced sampling simulation, starting from the bound conformation and partially biased towards unbound poses. The we leverage the information gained from this short simulation to run, longer unbiased simulations to collect statistics. Thanks to the modularity and automation that the protocol offers we were able to test three different methods for the long simulations: PELE, molecular dynamics and AdaptivePELE. PELE and molecular dynamics showed similar results, although PELE used less computational resources. Both seemed to work well with small protein-fragment systems or proteins with not very flexible binding sites. Both failed to accurately reproduce the binding of a kinase, the Mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (ERK2). On the other hand, AdaptivePELE did not show a great improvement over PELE, with positive results for the Urokinase-type plasminogen activator (URO) and a clear lack of sampling for the Progesterone receptor (PR). We demonstrated the importance of well-designed suite of test systems for the development of new methods. Through the use of a diverse benchmark of protein systems we have established the cases in which the protocol is expected to give accurate results, and which areas require further development. This benchmark consisted of four proteins, and over 30 ligands, much larger than the test systems typically used in the development of pathway-based free energy methods. In summary, the methodology developed in this work can contribute to the drug discovery process for a limited range of protein systems. For many other, we have observed that regular unbiased simulations are not efficient enough and more sophisticated, enhanced sampling methods are required.Els grans avenços en la capacitat de computació han motivat l'esperança que els mètodes de simulacions per ordinador puguin accelerar el ritme de descobriment de nous fàrmacs. Per a què això sigui possible, es necessiten eines ràpides, acurades i fàcils d'utilitzar. Un dels problemes que han rebut més atenció és el de la predicció d'energies lliures d'unió entre proteïna i lligand. Dos grans problemes han estat identificats per a aquests mètodes: la falta de mostreig i les aproximacions dels models. Aquesta tesi està enfocada a resoldre el primer problema. Per a això, presentem el desenvolupament de mètodes eficients per a l'estimació de d'energies lliures d'unió entre proteïna i lligand. Hem desenvolupat un protocol que combina mètodes anomenats enhanced sampling amb simulació clàssiques per a obtenir una major eficiència. Els mètodes d'enhanced sampling són una classe d'eines que apliquen algun tipus de pertorbació externa al sistema que s'està estudiant per tal d'accelerar-ne el mostreig. En el nostre protocol, primer correm una simulació exploratòria d'enhanced sampling, començant per una mostra de la unió de la proteïna i el lligand. Aquesta simulació esta parcialment esbiaixada cap a aquells estats del sistema on els dos components es troben més separats. Després utilitzem la informació obtinguda d'aquesta primera simulació més curta per a córrer una segona simulació més llarga, amb mètodes sense biaix per obtenir una estadística fidedigna del sistema. Gràcies a la modularitat i el grau d'automatització que la implementació del protocol ofereix, hem pogut provar tres mètodes diferents per les simulacions llargues: PELE, dinàmica molecular i AdaptivePELE. PELE i dinàmica molecular han mostrat resultats similars, tot i que PELE utilitza menys recursos. Els dos han mostrat bons resultats en l'estudi de sistemes de fragments o amb proteïnes amb llocs d'unió poc flexibles. Però, els dos han fallat a l'hora de reproduir els resultats experimentals per a una quinasa, la Mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (ERK2). D'altra banda, AdaptivePELE no ha mostrat una gran millora respecte a PELE, amb resultats positius per a la proteïna Urokinase-type plasminogen activator (URO) i una clara falta de mostreig per al receptor de progesterona (PR). En aquest treball hem demostrat la importància d'establir un banc de proves equilibrat durant el desenvolupament de nous mètodes. Mitjançant l'ús d'un banc de proves divers hem pogut establir en quins casos es pot esperar que el protocol obtingui resultats acurats, i quines àrees necessiten més desenvolupament. El banc de proves ha consistit de quatre proteïnes i més de trenta lligands, molt més dels que comunament s'utilitzen en el desenvolupament de mètodes per a la predicció d'energies d'unió mitjançant mètodes basats en camins (pathway-based). En resum, la metodologia desenvolupada durant aquesta tesi pot contribuir al procés de recerca de nous fàrmacs per a certs tipus de sistemes de proteïnes. Per a la resta, hem observat que els mètodes de simulació no esbiaixats no són prou eficients i tècniques més sofisticades són necessàries

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance

Quantum systems engineering

With the aim of defining a Quantum Systems Engineering paradigm, we show that the systems engineering of quantum technologies is materially different from systems engineering in general. The thesis is based upon a two pronged mixed-methods research approach considering: (a) a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the difficulties in deriving systems engineering modelling tools; (b) identifying systems engineering challenges in practical quantum technology development through direct observation and case-study methods. We show a modified systems approach should benefit early stage quantum technologies design and development, a stage characterised by a low Technology Readiness Level (TRL), with the aim of accelerating capitalisation. The research showed that systems engineering applied to quantum technologies will require processes that are both more complex, and different from, those used for conventional systems technology development. This is fundamentally caused by the quantum properties of the system. Furthermore, the research evidenced that applying systems methods, tools, and approaches to low Technology Readiness Level development, both quantum and classical, is very likely to accelerate development, increase the quality of deliverables, and improve the alignment of early research to end-user needs and natural technology pull. Based on these results we have developed a series of recommendations, and a selection of systems tools, which together constitute a light-weight systems approach for low Technology Readiness Level development (some of which also apply to non-quantum domains). These are contained within the concluding chapter of the report. Findings are presented both as a verbal narrative and with full mathematical derivations