Super Logic Programs

The Autoepistemic Logic of Knowledge and Belief (AELB) is a powerful nonmonotic formalism introduced by Teodor Przymusinski in 1994. In this paper, we specialize it to a class of theories called `super logic programs'. We argue that these programs form a natural generalization of standard logic programs. In particular, they allow disjunctions and default negation of arbibrary positive objective formulas. Our main results are two new and powerful characterizations of the static semant ics of these programs, one syntactic, and one model-theoretic. The syntactic fixed point characterization is much simpler than the fixed point construction of the static semantics for arbitrary AELB theories. The model-theoretic characterization via Kripke models allows one to construct finite representations of the inherently infinite static expansions. Both characterizations can be used as the basis of algorithms for query answering under the static semantics. We describe a query-answering interpreter for super programs which we developed based on the model-theoretic characterization and which is available on the web.Comment: 47 pages, revised version of the paper submitted 10/200

Query DAGs: A Practical Paradigm for Implementing Belief-Network Inference

We describe a new paradigm for implementing inference in belief networks, which consists of two steps: (1) compiling a belief network into an arithmetic expression called a Query DAG (Q-DAG); and (2) answering queries using a simple evaluation algorithm. Each node of a Q-DAG represents a numeric operation, a number, or a symbol for evidence. Each leaf node of a Q-DAG represents the answer to a network query, that is, the probability of some event of interest. It appears that Q-DAGs can be generated using any of the standard algorithms for exact inference in belief networks (we show how they can be generated using clustering and conditioning algorithms). The time and space complexity of a Q-DAG generation algorithm is no worse than the time complexity of the inference algorithm on which it is based. The complexity of a Q-DAG evaluation algorithm is linear in the size of the Q-DAG, and such inference amounts to a standard evaluation of the arithmetic expression it represents. The intended value of Q-DAGs is in reducing the software and hardware resources required to utilize belief networks in on-line, real-world applications. The proposed framework also facilitates the development of on-line inference on different software and hardware platforms due to the simplicity of the Q-DAG evaluation algorithm. Interestingly enough, Q-DAGs were found to serve other purposes: simple techniques for reducing Q-DAGs tend to subsume relatively complex optimization techniques for belief-network inference, such as network-pruning and computation-caching.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

ERDS: Emerging Risks Detection Support : 2007 project report

Rapport over het detecteren van risico's met de veiligheid van voeding. Aan de hand van het melamineschandaal wordt gekeken hoe in een vroegtijdig stadium risico's onderkend kunnen worde

Exploiting Causal Independence in Bayesian Network Inference

A new method is proposed for exploiting causal independencies in exact Bayesian network inference. A Bayesian network can be viewed as representing a factorization of a joint probability into the multiplication of a set of conditional probabilities. We present a notion of causal independence that enables one to further factorize the conditional probabilities into a combination of even smaller factors and consequently obtain a finer-grain factorization of the joint probability. The new formulation of causal independence lets us specify the conditional probability of a variable given its parents in terms of an associative and commutative operator, such as ``or'', ``sum'' or ``max'', on the contribution of each parent. We start with a simple algorithm VE for Bayesian network inference that, given evidence and a query variable, uses the factorization to find the posterior distribution of the query. We show how this algorithm can be extended to exploit causal independence. Empirical studies, based on the CPCS networks for medical diagnosis, show that this method is more efficient than previous methods and allows for inference in larger networks than previous algorithms.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file