A Bayesian Spatial Propensity Score Matching Evaluation of the Regional Impact of Micro-finance

A Bayesian Spatial-Propensity Score Matching estimator is proposed to measure the regional impact of microfinance on poverty reduction and women's empowerment. The impact of microfinance in Bolivia was tested with this estimator, using census and household survey data. The results suggest that microfinance was useful for poverty reduction and women’s empowerment at municipality level in Bolivia

Latent Causal Socioeconomic Health Index

This research develops a model-based LAtent Causal Socioeconomic Health (LACSH) index at the national level. We build upon the latent health factor index (LHFI) approach that has been used to assess the unobservable ecological/ecosystem health. This framework integratively models the relationship between metrics, the latent health, and the covariates that drive the notion of health. In this paper, the LHFI structure is integrated with spatial modeling and statistical causal modeling, so as to evaluate the impact of a continuous policy variable (mandatory maternity leave days and government's expenditure on healthcare, respectively) on a nation's socioeconomic health, while formally accounting for spatial dependency among the nations. A novel visualization technique for evaluating covariate balance is also introduced for the case of a continuous policy (treatment) variable. We apply our LACSH model to countries around the world using data on various metrics and potential covariates pertaining to different aspects of societal health. The approach is structured in a Bayesian hierarchical framework and results are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.Comment: 31 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1911.0051

Simultaneous Variable and Covariance Selection with the Multivariate Spike-and-Slab Lasso

We propose a Bayesian procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance selection using continuous spike-and-slab priors in multivariate linear regression models where q possibly correlated responses are regressed onto p predictors. Rather than relying on a stochastic search through the high-dimensional model space, we develop an ECM algorithm similar to the EMVS procedure of Rockova & George (2014) targeting modal estimates of the matrix of regression coefficients and residual precision matrix. Varying the scale of the continuous spike densities facilitates dynamic posterior exploration and allows us to filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances gradually. Our method is seen to substantially outperform regularization competitors on simulated data. We demonstrate our method with a re-examination of data from a recent observational study of the effect of playing high school football on several later-life cognition, psychological, and socio-economic outcomes

Generative Causal Inference

In this paper we propose the use of the generative AI methods in Econometrics. Generative methods avoid the use of densities as done by MCMC. They directrix simulate large samples of observables and unobservable (parameters, latent variables) and then using high-dimensional deep learner to inform a nonlinear transport map from data to parameter inferences. Our themed apply to a wide verity or econometrics problems, including those where the latent variables are updates in deterministic fashion. Further, paper we illustrate our methodology in the field of causal inference and show how generative AI provides generalization of propensity scores. Our approach can also handle nonlinearity and heterogeneity. Finally, we conclude with the directions for future research.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2305.1497

Covariate balance in a Bayesian propensity score analysis of beta blocker therapy in heart failure patients

Regression adjustment for the propensity score is a statistical method that reduces confounding from measured variables in observational data. A Bayesian propensity score analysis extends this idea by using simultaneous estimation of the propensity scores and the treatment effect. In this article, we conduct an empirical investigation of the performance of Bayesian propensity scores in the context of an observational study of the effectiveness of beta-blocker therapy in heart failure patients. We study the balancing properties of the estimated propensity scores. Traditional Frequentist propensity scores focus attention on balancing covariates that are strongly associated with treatment. In contrast, we demonstrate that Bayesian propensity scores can be used to balance the association between covariates and the outcome. This balancing property has the effect of reducing confounding bias because it reduces the degree to which covariates are outcome risk factors