Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options

Stock Price Manipulation : The Role of Intermediaries

We set out to study stock price manipulation when the manipulator is in the role of an intermediary (broker). We find that in the absence of superior information, the broker can manipulate equilibrium outcomes without losing its credibility with respect to accurate forecasting. The result extends to the case when the broker prefers more investment to come into the market. However, when moderate competition among brokers is introduced, then the investors get a favored outcome. When competition exceeds a certain threshold, neither the brokers nor the investors get their respective favored outcomes. In any case, if the broker bias for more investment dominates competition, the brokers get their favorite outcome at the expense of investors.Stock Price Manipulation, Broker Manipulation, Broker Competition, Broker Bias, Emerging Markets

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets

Enhancing health risk prediction with deep learning on big data and revised fusion node paradigm

With recent advances in health systems, the amount of health data is expanding rapidly in various formats. This data originates from many new sources including digital records, mobile devices, and wearable health devices. Big health data offers more opportunities for health data analysis and enhancement of health services via innovative approaches. The objective of this research is to develop a framework to enhance health prediction with the revised fusion node and deep learning paradigms. Fusion node is an information fusion model for constructing prediction systems. Deep learning involves the complex application of machine-learning algorithms, such as Bayesian fusions and neural network, for data extraction and logical inference. Deep learning, combined with information fusion paradigms, can be utilized to provide more comprehensive and reliable predictions from big health data. Based on the proposed framework, an experimental system is developed as an illustration for the framework implementatio