A Bayesian method of distinguishing unit root from stationary processes based on panel data models with cross-sectional dependence

In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to detecting unit roots in autoregressive panel data models. Our method is based on the comparison of stationary autoregressive models with and without individual deterministic trends, to their counterpart models with a unit autoregressive root. This is done under cross-sectional dependence among the error terms of the panel units. Simulation experiments are conducted with the aim to assess the performance of the suggested inferential procedure, as well as to investigate if the Bayesian model comparison approach can distinguish unit root models from stationary autoregressive models under cross-sectional dependence. The approach is applied to real exchange rate series for a panel of the G7 countries and to a panel of US nominal interest rates data. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York