Bayesian Synthesis: Combining subjective analyses, with an application to ozone data

Bayesian model averaging enables one to combine the disparate predictions of a number of models in a coherent fashion, leading to superior predictive performance. The improvement in performance arises from averaging models that make different predictions. In this work, we tap into perhaps the biggest driver of different predictions---different analysts---in order to gain the full benefits of model averaging. In a standard implementation of our method, several data analysts work independently on portions of a data set, eliciting separate models which are eventually updated and combined through a specific weighting method. We call this modeling procedure Bayesian Synthesis. The methodology helps to alleviate concerns about the sizable gap between the foundational underpinnings of the Bayesian paradigm and the practice of Bayesian statistics. In experimental work we show that human modeling has predictive performance superior to that of many automatic modeling techniques, including AIC, BIC, Smoothing Splines, CART, Bagged CART, Bayes CART, BMA and LARS, and only slightly inferior to that of BART. We also show that Bayesian Synthesis further improves predictive performance. Additionally, we examine the predictive performance of a simple average across analysts, which we dub Convex Synthesis, and find that it also produces an improvement.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS444 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The lost sunspot cycle: New support from Be10 measurements

It has been suggested that the deficit in the number of spots on the surface of the Sun between 1790 and 1830, known as the Dalton minimum, contained an extra cycle that was not identified in the original sunspot record by Wolf. Though this cycle would be shorter and weaker than the average solar cycle, it would shift the magnetic parity of the solar magnetic field of the earlier cycles. This extra cycle is sometimes referred to as the 'lost solar cycle' or 'cycle 4b'. Here we reanalyse Be10 measurements with annual resolution from the NGRIP ice core in Greenland in order to investigate if the hypothesis regarding a lost sunspot cycle is supported by these measurements. Specifically, we make use of the fact that the Galactic cosmic rays, responsible for forming Be10 in the Earth's atmosphere, are affected differently by the open solar magnetic field during even and odd solar cycles. This fact enables us to evaluate if the numbering of cycles earlier than cycle 5 is correct. For the evaluation, we use Bayesian analysis, which reveals that the lost sunspot cycle hypothesis is likely to be correct. We also discuss if this cycle 4b is a real cycle, or a phase catastrophe, and what implications this has for our understanding of stellar activity cycles in general.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Mitochondrial and nuclear genes suggest that stony corals are monophyletic but most families of stony corals are not (Order Scleractinia, Class Anthozoa, Phylum Cnidaria)

Modern hard corals (Class Hexacorallia; Order Scleractinia) are widely studied because of their fundamental role in reef building and their superb fossil record extending back to the Triassic. Nevertheless, interpretations of their evolutionary relationships have been in flux for over a decade. Recent analyses undermine the legitimacy of traditional suborders, families and genera, and suggest that a non-skeletal sister clade (Order Corallimorpharia) might be imbedded within the stony corals. However, these studies either sampled a relatively limited array of taxa or assembled trees from heterogeneous data sets. Here we provide a more comprehensive analysis of Scleractinia (127 species, 75 genera, 17 families) and various outgroups, based on two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome oxidase I, cytochrome b), with analyses of nuclear genes (ßtubulin, ribosomal DNA) of a subset of taxa to test unexpected relationships. Eleven of 16 families were found to be polyphyletic. Strikingly, over one third of all families as conventionally defined contain representatives from the highly divergent "robust" and "complex" clades. However, the recent suggestion that corallimorpharians are true corals that have lost their skeletons was not upheld. Relationships were supported not only by mitochondrial and nuclear genes, but also often by morphological characters which had been ignored or never noted previously. The concordance of molecular characters and more carefully examined morphological characters suggests a future of greater taxonomic stability, as well as the potential to trace the evolutionary history of this ecologically important group using fossils

An efficient probe of the cosmological CPT violation

We develop an efficient method based on the linear regression algorithm to probe the cosmological CPT violation using the CMB polarisation data. We validate this method using simulated CMB data and apply it to recent CMB observations. We find that a combined data sample of BICEP1 and BOOMERanG 2003 favours a nonzero isotropic rotation angle at $2.3\sigma$ confidence level, ie, $\Delta\alpha=-3.3 \pm1.4$ deg (68% CL) with systematics included.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. The published versio

Information-technology approach to quantum feedback control

Quantum control theory is profitably reexamined from the perspective of quantum information, two results on the role of quantum information technology in quantum feedback control are presented and two quantum feedback control schemes, teleportation-based distant quantum feedback control and quantum feedback control with quantum cloning, are proposed. In the first feedback scheme, the output from the quantum system to be controlled is fed back into the distant actuator via teleportation to alter the dynamics of system. The result theoretically shows that it can accomplish some tasks such as distant feedback quantum control that Markovian or Bayesian quantum feedback can't complete. In the second feedback strategy, the design of quantum feedback control algorithms is separated into a state recognition step, which gives "on-off" signal to the actuator through recognizing some copies from the cloning machine, and a feedback (control) step using another copies of cloning machine. A compromise between information acquisition and measurement disturbance is established, and this strategy can perform some quantum control tasks with coherent feedback.Comment: 10 pages,submitte