Bayesian statistical analysis of ground-clutter for the relative calibration of dual polarization weather radars

A new data processing methodology, based on the statistical analysis of ground-clutter echoes and aimed at investigating the stability of the weather radar relative calibration, is presented. A Bayesian classification scheme has been used to identify meteorological and/or ground-clutter echoes. The outcome is evaluated on a training dataset using statistical score indexes through the comparison with a deterministic clutter map. After discriminating the ground clutter areas, we have focused on the spatial analysis of robust and stable returns by using an automated region-merging algorithm. The temporal series of the ground-clutter statistical parameters, extracted from the spatial analysis and expressed in terms of percentile and mean values, have been used to estimate the relative clutter calibration and its uncertainty for both co-polar and differential reflectivity. The proposed methodology has been applied to a dataset collected by a C-band weather radar in southern Italy

Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

Abstract. Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative \\mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic and hydraulic modelling chain. The characteristics of this tool make it ideal to support flood monitoring and forecasting within urban environment and small-scale basins. Preliminary results, carried out during a field campaign in Moldova, showed that the mini-radar based hydro-meteorological forecasting system can constitute a suitable solution for local flood warning and civil flood protection applications

A support vector machine hydrometeor classification algorithm for dual-polarization radar

An algorithm based on a support vector machine (SVM) is proposed for hydrometeor classification. The training phase is driven by the output of a fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm, i.e., the most popular approach for hydrometer classification algorithms used for ground-based weather radar. The performance of SVM is evaluated by resorting to a weather scenario, generated by a weather model; the corresponding radar measurements are obtained by simulation and by comparing results of SVM classification with those obtained by a fuzzy logic classifier. Results based on the weather model and simulations show a higher accuracy of the SVM classification. Objective comparison of the two classifiers applied to real radar data shows that SVM classification maps are spatially more homogenous (textural indices, energy, and homogeneity increases by 21% and 12% respectively) and do not present non-classified data. The improvements found by SVM classifier, even though it is applied pixel-by-pixel, can be attributed to its ability to learn from the entire hyperspace of radar measurements and to the accurate training. The reliability of results and higher computing performance make SVM attractive for some challenging tasks such as its implementation in Decision Support Systems for helping pilots to make optimal decisions about changes in the flight route caused by unexpected adverse weather

Influence of cloud microphysics schemes on weather model predictions of heavy precipitation

Cloud microphysics is one of the major sources of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. In this work, the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to correctly predict high-impact weather events, i.e., hail and heavy rain, using different cloud microphysics schemes is evaluated statistically. Polarimetric C-band radar observations over 30 convection days are used as observation dataset. Simulations are made using the regional-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with five microphysical schemes of varying complexity (double moment, spectral bin (SBM), and particle property prediction (P3)). Statistical characteristics of heavy rain and hail events of varying intensities are compared between simulations and observations. All simulations, regardless of the microphysical scheme, predict heavy rain events that cover larger average areas than those observed by radar. The frequency of these heavy rain events is similar to radar-measured heavy rain events, but still scatters by a factor of 2 around the observations, depending on the microphysical scheme. The model is generally unable to simulate extreme hail events with reflectivity thresholds of 55 dBZ and higher, although they have been observed by radar during the evaluation period. For slightly weaker hail/graupel events, only the P3 model is able to reproduce the observed statistics. Analysis of the raindrop size distribution in combination with the model mixing ratio shows that the P3, Thompson 2-mom, and Thompson aerosol-aware models produce large raindrops too frequently, and the SBM model misses large rain and graupel particles.</p

X-band dual-polarization radar-based hydrometeor classification for Brazilian tropical precipitation systems

The dominant hydrometeor types associated with Brazilian tropical precipitation systems are identified via research X-band dual-polarization radar deployed in the vicinity of the Manaus region (Amazonas) during both the GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA field experiments. The present study is based on an agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) approach that makes use of dual polarimetric radar observables (reflectivity at horizontal polarization ZH, differential reflectivity ZDR, specific differential-phase KDP, and correlation coefficient ρHV) and temperature data inferred from sounding balloons. The sensitivity of the agglomerative clustering scheme for measuring the intercluster dissimilarities (linkage criterion) is evaluated through the wet-season dataset. Both the weighted and Ward linkages exhibit better abilities to retrieve cloud microphysical species, whereas clustering outputs associated with the centroid linkage are poorly defined. The AHC method is then applied to investigate the microphysical structure of both the wet and dry seasons. The stratiform regions are composed of five hydrometeor classes: drizzle, rain, wet snow, aggregates, and ice crystals, whereas convective echoes are generally associated with light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, graupel, aggregates, and ice crystals. The main discrepancy between the wet and dry seasons is the presence of both low- and high-density graupel within convective regions, whereas the rainy period exhibits only one type of graupel. Finally, aggregate and ice crystal hydrometeors in the tropics are found to exhibit higher polarimetric values compared to those at midlatitudes.</p

Applications of Gaussian Mixture Model to Weather Observations

The estimation of weather parameters such as attenuation and rainfall rates from weather radar data has been based mainly on deterministic regression models. The applications of a Bayesian approach to weather parameters classification and estimation have also been limited by a single Gaussian assumption. A computational intelligence model, i.e., Gaussian mixture model (GMM), is introduced in this work to characterize the prior distribution of weather parameters and the corresponding radar observation variables. Since a GMM would converge to any given distribution as the number of mixture increases, it provides an efficient way to accommodate extra information from antenna and frequency diversities and an `omnipotent' solution to extract and model the `knowledge' from training data. Hydrometeor classification and weather parameters estimation through a Bayesian approach are also made possible by the precisely represented prior distribution. A linear Bayesian estimator based on GMM, namely the Gaussian Mixture Parameter Estimator (GMPE), is then developed and tested in applications such as drop size distribution (DSD) retrieval, rainfall rate estimation and attenuation correction. The advantages of GMPE include 1) it is a `best' estimator in terms of minimum-variance, unbiased performance; 2) it can easily include/exclude different radar observation variables and remains a `best' estimator; 3) it provides a general framework that is applicable to different radar-meteorological applications. GMPE is further extended to explore the spatial relations with a Kalman Filter structure. Applications of the Kalman filter GMPE to rainfall rate estimation at X-band are analyzed and discussed

Method to combine spaceborne radar and radiometric observations of precipitation, A

2010 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation describes the development and application of a combined radar-radiometer rainfall retrieval algorithm for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. A retrieval framework based upon optimal estimation theory is proposed wherein three parameters describing the raindrop size distribution (DSD), ice particle size distribution (PSD), and cloud water path (cLWP) are retrieved for each radar profile. The retrieved rainfall rate is found to be strongly sensitive to the a priori constraints in DSD and cLWP; thus, these parameters are tuned to match polarimetric radar estimates of rainfall near Kwajalein, Republic of Marshall Islands. An independent validation against gauge-tuned radar rainfall estimates at Melbourne, FL shows agreement within 2% which exceeds previous algorithms' ability to match rainfall at these two sites. The algorithm is then applied to two years of TRMM data over oceans to determine the sources of DSD variability. Three correlated sets of variables representing storm dynamics, background environment, and cloud microphysics are found to account for approximately 50% of the variability in the absolute and reflectivity-normalized median drop size. Structures of radar reflectivity are also identified and related to drop size, with these relationships being confirmed by ground-based polarimetric radar data from the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). Regional patterns of DSD and the sources of variability identified herein are also shown to be consistent with previous work documenting regional DSD properties. In particular, mid-latitude regions and tropical regions near land tend to have larger drops for a given reflectivity, whereas the smallest drops are found in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. Due to properties of the DSD and rain water/cloud water partitioning that change with column water vapor, it is shown that increases in water vapor in a global warming scenario could lead to slight (1%) underestimates of a rainfall trends by radar but larger overestimates (5%) by radiometer algorithms. Further analyses are performed to compare tropical oceanic mean rainfall rates between the combined algorithm and other sources. The combined algorithm is 15% higher than the version 6 of the 2A25 radar-only algorithm and 6.6% higher than the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) estimate for the same time-space domain. Despite being higher than these two sources, the combined total is not inconsistent with estimates of the other components of the energy budget given their uncertainties