Viscous flow of the Cu47-Ti34-Zr11-Ni8 glass forming alloy

The viscosity of the Cu47-Ti34-Zr11-Ni8 glass forming alloy was determined by beam bending experiments and by a noncontact oscillating drop technique. These viscosity data can be described with the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann relation. Using the strong/fragile classification of glasses, Cu47-Ti34-Zr11-Ni8 is more fragile than the strong Zr-Ti-Cu-Ni-Be metallic glass formers

Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies

This paper provides an empirical inquiry into the sources of movements of the real and nominal exchange rates in Hungary and Poland for during the 1990:01-1998:02 period. We decompose the exchange rate movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks, we find that (1) nominal shocks have played a significant role in Poland, but not in Hungary, in explaining real exchange rate movements during the transition period. Instead, real shocks have dominated real exchange movements in Hungary and (2) nominal shocks explain almost all of nominal exchange rate movements in Poland and a sizable portion of nominal exchange rate movements in Hungary. These results are compared with the findings of Lastrapes (1992) and Enders and Lee (1997) for industrial countries. Finally, policy implications of the empirical results as well their lessons for modeling exchange rates in transition economies are discussed.Poland ; Hungary ; Econometric models

Conditional heteroskedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: a Gibbs sampling approach to the bank prime rate

Previous time series applications of qualitative response models have ignored features of the data, such as conditional heteroskedasticity, that are routinely addressed in time-series econometrics of financial data. This article addresses this issue by adding Markov-switching heteroskedasticity to a dynamic ordered probit model of discrete changes in the bank prime lending rate and estimation via the Gibbs sampler. The dynamic ordered probit model of Eichengreen, Watson and Grossman (1995) allows for serial autocorrelation in probit analysis of a time series, and the present article demonstrates the relative simplicity of estimating a dynamic ordered probit using the Gibbs sampler instead of the Eichengreen et al. maximum-likelihood procedure. In addition, the extension to regime-switching parameters and conditional heteroskedasticity is easy to implement under Gibbs sampling. The article compares tests of goodness of fit between dynamic ordered probit models of the prime rate that have constant variance and conditional heteroskedasticity.Prime rate ; Econometric models

R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks

We examine the dynamic properties of an endogenous growth model with an explicit R&D sector in order to evaluate its ability to propagate temporary disturbances into persistent fluctuations in macroeconomic variables. We demonstrate that a large proportion of the variability and persistence of measured Solow residuals can be thought of as reflecting the endogenous accumulation and adaptation of technical knowledge rather than simply exogenous processes. By explicitly modeling R&D, we use a framework in which it is possible to explicitly consider the role of technology in "technology shocks."Research and development

The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997

Macroeconomic policy in the Czech Republic has been based on a fixed exchange rate for most of the post-1993 period and a conservative fiscal policy characterized by a government budget that was close to balance combined with a tight monetary policy that sought to maintain high interest rates and to restrict the growth of the money supply. Surprisingly, given the Czech Republic's good starting conditions for carrying out such a "soft landing" in its macroeconomic stabilization, the economy was hit by a speculative attack on the koruna in May, 1997, and the economy, which had shown some signs of an increasing tempo of growth, appears to have slid into recession. At the same time, inflation has proven to be, while moderate by regional standards, surprisingly resistant to dropping below 10% per annum, thus leaving the Czech Republic in an undesirable state of "stagflation". with output declining, unemployment rising, and inflation accelerating. In this paper we argue that, although the fixed nominal exchange rate policy may have been retained for too long, and that, while the mix of monetary and fiscal policies was inappropriate given the desire for a fixed nominal exchange rate, the key problem for Czech policy both before and after the abandonment of a fixed exchange rate policy was and is the persistence of a rate of inflation that exceeds that of its major trading partners by a large margin. After explaining the relationship between Czech inflation, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies and the crisis of May, 1997, we examine some explanations for the persistence of inflation in the Czech Republic at a level around 10%. We close by examining the policy implications of our findings in the context of the Czech National Bank's new policy of inflation targeting.Money ; Czech Republic ; Inflation (Finance)