Exchangeable Variable Models

A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are partially exchangeable sequences, a generalization of exchangeable sequences. We prove that a family of tractable EVMs is optimal under zero-one loss for a large class of functions, including parity and threshold functions, and strictly subsumes existing tractable independence-based model families. Extensive experiments show that EVMs outperform state of the art classifiers such as SVMs and probabilistic models which are solely based on independence assumptions.Comment: ICML 201

Machine learning stochastic design models.

Due to the fluid nature of the early stages of the design process, it is difficult to obtain deterministic product design evaluations. This is primarily due to the flexibility of the design at this stage, namely that there can be multiple interpretations of a single design concept. However, it is important for designers to understand how these design concepts are likely to fulfil the original specification, thus enabling the designer to select or bias towards solutions with favourable outcomes. One approach is to create a stochastic model of the design domain. This paper tackles the issues of using a product database to induce a Bayesian model that represents the relationships between the design parameters and characteristics. A greedy learning algorithm is presented and illustrated using a simple case study