The Computational Complexity of Genetic Diversity

A key question in biological systems is whether genetic diversity persists in the long run under evolutionary competition, or whether a single dominant genotype emerges. Classic work by [Kalmus, J. og Genetics, 1945] has established that even in simple diploid species (species with chromosome pairs) diversity can be guaranteed as long as the heterozygous (having different alleles for a gene on two chromosomes) individuals enjoy a selective advantage. Despite the classic nature of the problem, as we move towards increasingly polymorphic traits (e.g., human blood types) predicting diversity (and its implications) is still not fully understood. Our key contribution is to establish complexity theoretic hardness results implying that even in the textbook case of single locus (gene) diploid models, predicting whether diversity survives or not given its fitness landscape is algorithmically intractable. Our hardness results are structurally robust along several dimensions, e.g., choice of parameter distribution, different definitions of stability/persistence, restriction to typical subclasses of fitness landscapes. Technically, our results exploit connections between game theory, nonlinear dynamical systems, and complexity theory and establish hardness results for predicting the evolution of a deterministic variant of the well known multiplicative weights update algorithm in symmetric coordination games; finding one Nash equilibrium is easy in these games. In the process we characterize stable fixed points of these dynamics using the notions of Nash equilibrium and negative semidefiniteness. This as well as hardness results for decision problems in coordination games may be of independent interest. Finally, we complement our results by establishing that under randomly chosen fitness landscapes diversity survives with significant probability. The full version of this paper is available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.6322

??-Completeness of Stationary Nash Equilibria in Perfect Information Stochastic Games

We show that the problem of deciding whether in a multi-player perfect information recursive game (i.e. a stochastic game with terminal rewards) there exists a stationary Nash equilibrium ensuring each player a certain payoff is ??-complete. Our result holds for acyclic games, where a Nash equilibrium may be computed efficiently by backward induction, and even for deterministic acyclic games with non-negative terminal rewards. We further extend our results to the existence of Nash equilibria where a single player is surely winning. Combining our result with known gadget games without any stationary Nash equilibrium, we obtain that for cyclic games, just deciding existence of any stationary Nash equilibrium is ??-complete. This holds for reach-a-set games, stay-in-a-set games, and for deterministic recursive games

Complexity Theory, Game Theory, and Economics: The Barbados Lectures

This document collects the lecture notes from my mini-course "Complexity Theory, Game Theory, and Economics," taught at the Bellairs Research Institute of McGill University, Holetown, Barbados, February 19--23, 2017, as the 29th McGill Invitational Workshop on Computational Complexity. The goal of this mini-course is twofold: (i) to explain how complexity theory has helped illuminate several barriers in economics and game theory; and (ii) to illustrate how game-theoretic questions have led to new and interesting complexity theory, including recent several breakthroughs. It consists of two five-lecture sequences: the Solar Lectures, focusing on the communication and computational complexity of computing equilibria; and the Lunar Lectures, focusing on applications of complexity theory in game theory and economics. No background in game theory is assumed.Comment: Revised v2 from December 2019 corrects some errors in and adds some recent citations to v1 Revised v3 corrects a few typos in v

Learning the Structure and Parameters of Large-Population Graphical Games from Behavioral Data

We consider learning, from strictly behavioral data, the structure and parameters of linear influence games (LIGs), a class of parametric graphical games introduced by Irfan and Ortiz (2014). LIGs facilitate causal strategic inference (CSI): Making inferences from causal interventions on stable behavior in strategic settings. Applications include the identification of the most influential individuals in large (social) networks. Such tasks can also support policy-making analysis. Motivated by the computational work on LIGs, we cast the learning problem as maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) of a generative model defined by pure-strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE). Our simple formulation uncovers the fundamental interplay between goodness-of-fit and model complexity: good models capture equilibrium behavior within the data while controlling the true number of equilibria, including those unobserved. We provide a generalization bound establishing the sample complexity for MLE in our framework. We propose several algorithms including convex loss minimization (CLM) and sigmoidal approximations. We prove that the number of exact PSNE in LIGs is small, with high probability; thus, CLM is sound. We illustrate our approach on synthetic data and real-world U.S. congressional voting records. We briefly discuss our learning framework's generality and potential applicability to general graphical games.Comment: Journal of Machine Learning Research. (accepted, pending publication.) Last conference version: submitted March 30, 2012 to UAI 2012. First conference version: entitled, Learning Influence Games, initially submitted on June 1, 2010 to NIPS 201