"Long-Term Trends in the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW), United States, 1959-2004"

We use here a new measure of household economic well-being called LIMEW. LIMEW is different in scope from the official United States Census Bureau measure of gross money income (MI) in that it includes taxes, noncash transfers, public consumption, income from wealth, and household production. We analyze trends in LIMEW from 1959 to 2004, and find that median LIMEW grew by 0.7 percent per year while median MI increased by 0.6 percent per year. LIMEW grew much slower than MI from 1959 to 1982, and much faster than MI from 1982 to 2004. In 2004, measured inequality was lower in LIMEW than MI (a difference of 5.5 Gini points); similarly, the increase in inequality between 1959 and 2004 was higher in MI than LIMEW (6.2 versus 5.1 Gini points). Much of the difference in these measures can be traced to the role of net government expenditures. According to both measures, the racial gap narrowed from 1959 to 1989; it then widened somewhat from 1989 to 2004 according to LIMEW but continued to narrow according to MI. The difference in time trends can be traced mainly to the rising income from wealth of white households relative to nonwhite households. The gap in well-being between single females and married couples widened from 1959 to 1989 and then narrowed slightly between 1989 and 2004 according to LIMEW but increased rather steadily from 1959 to 2004 according to MI. The fortunes of the elderly relative to the nonelderly showed considerable improvement from 1959 to 2004 according to LIMEW, almost reaching parity in 2004. In contrast, according to MI, the relative position of the elderly was about the same in 2004 as in 1959. In this instance, the difference in time trends can be traced mainly to rising income from wealth and government transfers accruing to the elderly relative to the nonelderly.

The Influence of Top Management Team’s Corporate Governance Orientation on Strategic Renewal Trajectories

Using the upper echelons perspective together with corporate governance and strategic renewal literature, this paper investigates how top managers’ corporate governance orientation influences a firm’s strategic renewal trajectories over time. Through both a qualitative analysis (1907-2004) and a quantitative analysis (1959-2004), we investigate this under-researched question within the context of a large incumbent firm: Royal Dutch Shell plc. Our results indicate that top managers having an Anglo-Saxon corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories, while those having a Rhine corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploratory and internal-growth strategic renewal trajectories. We also found a positive moderating effect of the proportion of shareholders from the Anglo-Saxon countries on exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories. Our findings indicate that top managers’ corporate governance orientation can be an important antecedent of strategic renewal and of organisational ambidexterity, both of which influence corporate longevity.corporate governance;strategic renewal;exploitation and exploration;Royal Dutch Shell;top management team;upper echelons perspective

Estudos Anglísticos na Universidade de Lisboa: III. Dissertações de Doutoramento (1959-2004)

Publicação apoiada pela Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologi

The Influence of Top Management Team’s Corporate Governance Orientation on Strategic Renewal Trajectories

Using the upper echelons perspective together with corporate governance and strategic renewal literature, this paper investigates how top managers’ corporate governance orientation influences a firm’s strategic renewal trajectories over time. Through both a qualitative analysis (1907-2004) and a quantitative analysis (1959-2004), we investigate this under-researched question within the context of a large incumbent firm: Royal Dutch Shell plc. Our results indicate that top managers having an Anglo-Saxon corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories, while those having a Rhine corporate governance orientation are more likely to pursue exploratory and internal-growth strategic renewal trajectories. We also found a positive moderating effect of the proportion of shareholders from the Anglo-Saxon countries on exploitative and external-growth strategic renewal trajectories. Our findings indicate that top managers’ corporate governance orientation can be an important antecedent of strategic renewal and of organisational ambidexterity, both of which influence corporate longevity

Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?

We develop a formal statistical approach to investigate the possibility that leading indicator variables have different lead times at business cycle peaks and troughs. For this purpose, we propose a novel Markov switching vector autoregressive model, where economic growth and leading indicators share a common Markov process determining the state, but such that their cycles are non-synchronous with the non-synchronicity varying across the different regimes. An empirical application to monthly US industrial production (IP) and The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI) for the period 1959-2004 shows that on average the CLI leads IP by more than seven months at peaks, but only by three and a half months at troughs. In terms of timeliness, the CLI is therefore most useful for signalling oncoming recessions. Furthermore, we find that allowing for asymmetric lead times leads to improved real-time dating of business cycle peaks and troughs and more accurate forecasts of turning points and IP growth

Análisis de tendencia de la precipitación por situaciones convectivas en la Comunidad Valenciana (1959-2004)

Ponencia presentada en: V Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Zaragoza del 18 al 21 de septiembre de 2006.[ES]El objetivo de este trabajo es el análisis territorializado de la tendencia de la precipitación en la Comunidad Valenciana para las situaciones de tipo convectivo, de carácter primaveral-estival y con un origen ligado a la formación de la baja térmica. Para las precipitaciones convectivas, los resultados del análisis de tendencias para el período 1959-2004, muestran una tendencia general al descenso de este tipo de situaciones así como de la precipitación, aunque los valores estadísticamente más significativos se localizan en el interior de la Comunidad en el primer semestre del año.[EN]In the present paper we analyse the convective precipitation type, which shows a marked spring/summer character and originates in connection with the formation of the thermal low. With respect to convective precipitation, our trend analysis for the 1959-2004 period shows a generalised decreasing trend both in this type of synoptic situation and in the associated rainfall, although the most significant statistical values are located in the interior of the region and in the first half of the year

Multiple Structural Breaks in Australia's Macroeconomic Data: An Application of the Lumsdaine and Papell Test

This paper employs all available annual time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for 10 macroeconomic variables in the Australian economy. The ADF (Augmented Dickey and Fuller) test and the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997) test are used to examine the time series properties of the data. The ADF test results provide no evidence against the unit root null hypothesis in all ten macroeconomic variables. After accounting for the two most significant structural breaks in the data impacting on both the intercept and trend, the results from the LP test indicate that the null of at least one unit root is rejected for four of the variables under investigation at the 10 per cent level or better. We also found that t he dates of structural breaks in most cases point to: (a) the oil/wages shock occurring in the 1973-1975 period, (b) the 1990-1991 recession; (c) the culmination of financial deregulation and innovation in the late 1980s; and (d) the 1997 Asian crisis.Unit roots Hypothesis, structural breaks, Australian economy

MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN AUSTRALIA’S MACROECONOMIC DATA: AN APPLICATION OF THE LUMSDAINE AND PAPELL TEST

This paper employs all available annual time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for 10 macroeconomic variables in the Australian economy. The ADF (Augmented Dickey and Fuller) test and the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997) test are used to examine the time series properties of the data. The ADF test results provide no evidence against the unit root null hypothesis in all ten macroeconomic variables. After accounting for the two most significant structural breaks in the data impacting on both the intercept and trend, the results from the LP test indicate that the null of at least one unit root is rejected for four of the variables under investigation at the 10 per cent level or better. We also found that the dates of structural breaks in most cases point to: (a) the oil/wages shock occurring in the 1973-1975 period, (b) the 1990-1991 recession; (c) the culmination of financial deregulation and innovation in the late 1980s; and (d) the 1997 Asian crisis.Unit roots Hypothesis, structural breaks, and Australian economy

Process based model sheds light on climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width

We use the process-based VS (Vaganov-Shashkin) model to investigate whether a regional <i>Pinus halepensis</i> tree-ring chronology from Tunisia can be simulated as a function of climate alone by employing a biological model linking day length and daily temperature and precipitation (AD 1959–2004) from a climate station to ring-width variations. We check performance of the model on independent data by a validation exercise in which the model's parameters are tuned using data for 1982–2004 and the model is applied to generate tree-ring indices for 1959–1981. The validation exercise yields a highly significant positive correlation between the residual chronology and estimated growth curve (<i>r</i>=0.76 <i>p</i><0.0001, <i>n</i>=23). The model shows that the average duration of the growing season is 191 days, with considerable variation from year to year. On average, soil moisture limits tree-ring growth for 128 days and temperature for 63 days. Model results depend on chosen values of parameters, in particular a parameter specifying a balance ratio between soil moisture and precipitation. Future work in the Mediterranean region should include multi-year natural experiments to verify patterns of cambial-growth variation suggested by the VS model