Razvoj modelov sistemske dinamike za podporo odločanju pri pridelavi in predelavi sladkorne pese

Abstract

Background: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. The abolishment of the quota system will open new investment opportunities in countries that were forced to abandon sugar industry as the result of the reform in 2006. Present paper describes the modeling of sugar beet production and its processing into sugar for purpose of decision support. Methods: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model impacts of regional sugar factory investment. We present two basic concepts of system dynamics models at causal loop diagram level. The first holistic model deals with regional planning of new product development and the second one deals with factory model. Results: The holistic model presented main feedback loops and dynamics of main elements in the case of regional investment into sugar industry. The factory model considered the specifics of the beet processing which is a) limited period of beet processing and b) initial adjustment to the production capacity at the start of the production season Conclusions: The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the whole sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level.Ozadje: Sladkorna pesa je glavna kultura, ki se uporablja za proizvodnjo sladkorja v našem klimatskem pasu. Ukinitev Sistema kvot z letom 2016 odpira možnosti ponovne vzpostavitve proizvodnje v članicah EU, ki so se ji bile prisiljene odreči v letu 2006. V članku predstavljamo možnost uporabe modelov sistemske dinamike za potrebe podpore odločanju pri investicijah v sladkorno industrijo. Metoda: Na nivoju vzročnega diagrama predstavljamo 2 modela sistemske dinamike. Prvi je holistični in predstavlja primer ocenejvanja efektov investicije v sladkorno insustrijo. Drugi model se pa ukvarja z delovanjem tovarne. Rezultati: Holistični model predstavlja vse povratne zanke v ssitemu sladkorne industrije na regionalnem nivoju. Model proizvodnje pa se ukvarja z delovanjem tovarne. Zaključk: Model omogoča iskanje odgovorov na strateška vprašanja in se bo uporabljal pri ocenejvanju scenarijev investicij v proizvodnjo sladkorja in njihovega vpliva ne proizvodno-ekonomske in okoljske parametre