POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF WILDFIRES IN THE RIO GRANDE WATERSHED: PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF FUTURE FIRE EVENTS IN THE RISK AREA OF EL RITO WATERSHED

Abstract

The main goals of this paper were to improve the understanding of the hydro-geomorphic effects of wildfires in the Rio Grande headwaters and identify the El Rito watershed as a fire prone risk area. To achieve the goals the researcher has conducted an extensive literature review about the impacts of wildfires in the Rio Grande watershed and built a system dynamic (SD) model to project the risk of fire occurrences in the El Rito watershed. The Powersim tool was used to simulate the probability of fire occurrence in the study area from 1970 to 2050 following the logit regression equation based on climate change variables and the result showed an increasing trend of the occurrence of fires in a monthly basis. This method will help fire managers make effective decisions by taking actions to improve the efficiency of wildfire suppression efforts during severe fire seasons.Community and Regional PlanningMastersUniversity of New Mexico. School of Architecture and PlanningScruggs, CarolineStone, MarkFleming, Willia