Climate Change Poses Risk of Local Extinction for Temperate Forest Species in Oaxaca, Mexico

Abstract

Climate change is expected to drive significant shifts in species distributions, particularly in temperate forest ecosystems. Areas of long-term environmental stability, known as climatic refugia, may play a key role in preserving biodiversity under future climate scenarios. This study assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of eleven temperate forest tree species in Oaxaca, Mexico. Species distribution models were developed for eleven tree-species of temperate forest using Random Forest, Generalized Additive Models, and Generalized Linear Models. Among these, Random Forest achieved the highest predictive performance. Future distributions were projected under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) for 2040 and 2100. Results indicate that under the SSP585 scenario, all species could lose over 90% of their current potential range by 2100. Although some are classified as “Least Concern” by the IUCN (2024), their local vulnerability is pronounced. Additionally, projections suggest declining representation within Natural Protected Areas, raising concerns about their long-term conservation capacity. These findings highlight the urgency of implementing adaptive conservation measures, including the identification and management of climatic refugia, promotion of assisted migration, and reduction of anthropogenic pressures to enhance species resilience