Quantifying Torrential Watershed Behavior over Time: A Synergistic Approach Using Classical and Modern Techniques

Abstract

This study investigates temporal and spatial variation in torrential flood hazards and sediment dynamics in two ungauged watersheds in southeastern Serbia from 1991 to 2023. By integrating classical hydrological models with modern geospatial and photogrammetric techniques, watershed responses to environmental and anthropogenic changes are quantified. Torrential flood potential was estimated and peak discharges were calculated using both the rational and SCS-Unit hydrograph methods, while sediment transport was assessed through Gavrilović’s erosion potential model and a modified Poljakov model. A key innovation is the use of UAV-based and close-range photogrammetry for 3D grain-size analysis, marking the first such application in Serbia. The mean torrential flood potential decreased by 4.4% in the Petrova Watershed and 4.2% in the Rasnička Watershed. Specific peak discharges for a 100-year return period declined from 1.62 to 1.07 m3·s−1·km−2 in Petrova and from 1.60 to 1.34 m3·s−1·km−2 in Rasnička. Sediment transport during a 1% probability flood was reduced from 4.97 to 2.53 m3·s−1 in Petrova and from 13.87 to 9.48 m3·s−1 in Rasnička. Grain-size analyses revealed immobile coarse bedload in the Petrova and active sediment transport in the Rasnička River, where D50 and D90 decreased between 2023 and 2024. The findings highlight the effectiveness of a synergistic methodological approach for analyzing complex watershed processes in data-scarce regions. The study provides a replicable model for flood hazard assessment and erosion control planning in similar mountainous environments undergoing socio-environmental transitions