Rynek powierzchni magazynowych w Wielkopolsce: kondycja i perspektywy rozwoju

Abstract

Poland is one of the leading countries in the warehouse space rental market in Europe, and the Greater Poland (Wielkopolska) region accounts for nearly one-fifth of the national warehouse space, making it one of the key logistics regions in the country.The aim of this analysis is to assess the dynamics of changes in the warehouse space market in Greater Poland, with particular emphasis on its response to crisis situations. Empirical research was conducted based on primary data obtained from Colliers, one of the leading advisory agencies providing commercial real estate consulting services. The company’s internal data were analyzed using the methodology adopted by the author. A quantitative and qualitative approach was applied, which allowed for the analysis of numerical trends as well as the identification of structural and cyclical conditions influencing the development of this market segment. Among other findings, it was established that the pandemic had a positive impact on the warehouse market, while the war in Ukraine had a negative one. The Greater Poland market is highly sensitive in terms of existing, new, planned, and under-construction supply, as well as the vacancy rate. Demand is slowly increasing; however, it remains more than twice as low as in the post-pandemic period. From a structural perspective, Big-box and BTS (Built-to-Suit) facilities dominate the market. A small portion of the total GLA (Gross Leasable Area) is made up of warehouses intended for last-mile logistics (so-called LML) and Small Business Units (SBU). LML facilities are often larger than SBUs and are designed to handle large shipment volumes and operate in a cross-dock or micro-fulfillment model. Moreover, a dozen SBUs or LMLs do not equal the area of a single large Big-box facility, hence the differences. Considering the full scope of the analysis, it can be concluded that the Greater Poland warehouse market is gradually shifting toward the strongest players.Polska jest jednym z liderów wynajmu powierzchni magazynowych w Europie, a region wielkopolski ma blisko jedną piątą udziału w krajowej powierzchni magazynowej, co czyni go jednym z kluczowych regionów logistycznych w Polsce. Celem rozważań jest ocena dynamiki zmian na rynku powierzchni magazynowych w Wielkopolsce ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem jego reakcji na sytuacje kryzysowe. Między innymi ustalono, że pandemia pozytywnie wpłynęła na rynek magazynowy, a wojna na Ukrainie negatywnie. Rynek wielkopolski jest wysoko wrażliwy w odniesieniu do podaży istniejącej, nowej, planowanej i w budowie oraz poziomu pustostanów. Popyt powoli wzrasta, niemniej jest ponad dwa razy niższy niż w czasie popandemicznym. Według ujęcia strukturalnego dominują obiektu typu big-box i BTS. Rynek wielkopolski parametrycznie sukcesywnie przesuwa się w kierunku najsilniejszych regionów powierzchni magazynowych