Performance-Based Adaptive Revenue Sharing in the Indonesian Natural Rubber Supply Chain: Model Design, AHP Calibration, and Simulation Evidence

Abstract

Introduction: The study addressed income inequities in Indonesia’s natural rubber supply chain by redesigning revenue sharing among farmers, collectors, processors and exporters in Padang Lawas, North Sumatra, aligning income allocation with observable contributions and risk.Methods: The study employed a developmental research approach to specify a performance-based, adaptive revenue-sharing model, calibrate it with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weights, and test it through multi-scenario simulations using field parameters on dry rubber content, market price, on-time delivery and actor-specific risk; the stability and consistency of the AHP weighting vector were assessed.Results: The AHP weights were stable, prioritising product quality, followed by price and timeliness, while risk received a smaller but meaningful weight; the consistency ratio remained below 0,10. Relative to a fixed baseline split, the adaptive mechanism reallocated income toward verified performance improvements, increasing farmers’ share from 11 % to 22 % under a moderate-price scenario with high on-time delivery, while preserving incentive compatibility and channel coordination.Conclusions: The study transformed revenue sharing from a static proportional rule into a transparent, auditable, learning-oriented mechanism that operationalised distributive justice through normalised performance indices. The model could be encoded in contract clauses with measurable quality metrics and public price benchmarks and implemented with low-cost traceability; broader field pilots and multi-region validation were required to generalise the results