Time Series Interbranch Dynamics in Agenda-Setting Behavior

Abstract

An intriguing gauge of political power in the United States is how the branches of government interact in their agenda-setting behaviors. Through examining these relationships, we can determine if a branch “leads” or “follows” remaining actors in terms of deciding which topics should receive greater attention. Despite the significant implications of being able to shape the policy agenda, the impact that each branch holds on others is understudied and lacks empirical evidence. In limited prior analyses, the conclusion generally seems to be upheld that the President holds the greatest power in agenda-setting; however, more recent studies have suggested a more intertwined relationship. We claim that the direction of influence is complex, and dependent on the specific policy area. Further, we claim that the media -- often referred to as the “fourth branch” -- holds considerable influence. To determine the level of interaction between actors and the direction of influence in different policy areas, we gathered data from the Comparative Agendas Project on State of the Union addresses, Congressional bills, Supreme Court cases, and the New York Times Index. Our data includes an extensive list of nineteen policy topics and spans from 1947 to 2009. To measure the significance of relationships, we develop three approaches -- Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests, Toda-Yamamoto Causality tests, and Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) for each topic. Ultimately, we find that it is rare for an actor to be the sole leader in a policy topic, and instead find several cases of multidirectional causality as well as no systematic leadership. Challenging historical notions, we find that the President lacks sole leadership of any policy area. Additionally, we find a general lack of activity from the Supreme Court.American Institutions and Methodology LabUndergraduate Research Apprenticeship ProgramUndergraduate Research ScholarshipNo embargoAcademic Major: MathematicsAcademic Major: Statistic