High individual crime rate as a predictor of penal recidivism

Abstract

Individualna stopa zločina odražava učestalost činjenja krivičnih dela aktivnih prestupnika. Istraživanjima kriminalne karijere izdvojena je kao jedna od ključnih dimenzija koja omogućava bolje razumevanje individualnog kriminalnog ponaša nja. Cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na značaj ispitivanja individualne stope zločina pri likom utvrđivanja rizika za penalni recidivizam. Dostupna istraživanja pokazuju da je stopa individualnog zločina varijabilna, te da zavisi od niza faktora među kojima se izdvajaju pol, uzrast prestupnika, tip kriminaliteta i uzrast na kome započinje kriminalna karijera. Studijama kriminalne karijere uočena je mala grupe prestup nika koja tokom kriminalne karijere izvršava krivična dela u visokim frekvencijama (hronični ili perzistentni prestupnici), što je podstaklo razmatranje mogućnosti za prospektivnu identifikaciju takvih delinkvenata. Ipak, nalazi pokazuju da dosada šnje metode identifikacije hroničnih prestupnika nisu u dovoljnoj meri pouzdane, te da se ne mogu uzeti u obzir pilikom procene rizika (penalnog) recidivizma. Ukoliko se uvaži činjenica da je najbolji pokazatelj budućeg kriminalnog ponašanja prethod no kriminalno ponašanje, jasno je kako je značajno adekvatno proceniti i predvideti individualnu stopu zločina kako sa aspekta primene odgovarajućeg tretmana unutar zatvora, tako i za prevenciju penalnog recidivizma.T he individual crime rate reflects the frequency with which crimes are committed by active offenders. Research on criminal careers has identified it as one of the most important dimension that enables a better understanding of individual criminal behavior. The aim of this paper is to point out the importance of examining the individual frequency of offending when it comes to determining the risk of penal recidivism. The available research shows that individual crime rates are variable and depend on a number of factors, including gender, the age of the offender, the type of offense, and the age at which a criminal career begins. Studies of criminal careers have observed a small group of offenders who commit frequent offenses over the course of their criminal career (chronic or persistent offenders), leading to consi deration of the possibility of prospective identification of such offenders. However, the results show that the current methods for identifying chronic offenders are not reliable enough and that they cannot be considered as a tool for assessing (penal) recidivism risk. If we take into account the fact that the best indicator of future criminal behavior is past criminal behavior, it becomes clear how important it is to adequately assess and predict the individual crime rate, both from the point of view of applying appropriate treatment within prison and for the prevention of penal recidivis