The Panama Canal and the future of interoceanic routing

Abstract

THE PANAMA CANAL AND THE FUTURE OF INTEROCEANIC ROUTING The Panama Canal and the future of interoceanic routing (1) Chapter (5) 1.​Introduction (6) 1.1.​Background (6) 1.2.​Research Objectives and Questions (7) 1.3.​Thesis Scope (8) 1.4.​Thesis Organization (9) 2.​Literature Review and Context (10) 2.1.​Global Shipping Disruptions (10) 2.2.​The Panama Canal (11) 2.2.1.​Historical and Strategic Significance (11) 2.2.2.​Recent Disruptions and Water Management Challenges (12) 2.2.3.​Expansion Projects (13) 2.2.4.​Realized Capacity and Operational Constraints (14) 2.2.5.​Panama Canal Railway as an Alternative (15) 2.3.​Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT) (16) 2.3.1.​Historical and Current State (16) 2.3.2.​Shipping Considerations (17) 2.3.3.​Economic, Social, and Environmental Considerations (18) 2.4.​The Proposed Nicaraguan Canal (19) 2.4.1.​Historical Background and Feasibility (19) 2.4.2.​Operational Potential (20) 2.4.3.​Economic, Social, and Environmental Considerations (21) 2.5.​Synthesis and Literature Gaps (22) 3.​Research Methodology (26) 3.1.​Overview of Methodological Framework (26) 3.2.​Literature Review Approach (26) 3.3.​Simulation Methodology (28) 3.3.1.​Justification for Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) (28) 3.3.2.​Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Blocks (29) 3.3.3.​ Data Sources and Preprocessing (30) 3.3.4.​Key Performance Indicators (36) 3.3.5.​Key Assumptions and Simplifications (37) 4.​Simulation Model Design (39) 4.1.​Model Structure and Logic (39) 4.2.​Lock System Representation (40) 4.3.​Arrival Generation and Poisson Assumptions (41) 4.4.​Parameterization (Waiting Time, Transit Times, Queuing, etc.) (42) 4.5.​Simulation Period (45) 4.6.​Validation Strategy and Limitations (46) 5.​Simulation Results and Analysis (47) 5.1.​Baseline Case Results: Drought Conditions (2023–2024) (47) 5.2.​Stress Scenarios: Increased Demand and Capacity Constraints (55) 5.3.​Lock System Utilization and Bottleneck Identification (58) 5.4.​Implications for Resilience and Planning (59) 6.​Discussion and Synthesis (61) 6.1.​Integration of Literature and Simulation Results (61) 6.2.​Operational & Strategic Insights (62) 6.3.​Policy and Planning Implications (62) 6.4.​Potential Role of Alternatives (Panama Railway, CIIT, Nicaragua) (63) 7.​Conclusion (65) 7.1.​Summary of Findings (65) 7.2.​Contributions and Limitations (65) 7.3.​Recommendations for Further Research (67) Chapter (67) References (68) Chapter (72) Appendix (73) Appendix A: Full Simulation Model Design (73