Fuzzy risk analysis for field condition, external, and technical risk factors in Subsea Pipeline Construction Projects to improve contingency cost accuracy

Abstract

This study focuses on identifying the relationship between risk factors related to environmental conditions, external factors, and technical aspects that affect the cost performance of underwater pipeline construction projects. The main objectives of this study are to understand the qualitative risk assessment that affects the contingency cost performance of underwater pipeline construction projects, and to identify the relationship between various risk factors. The methodology in this study involves a case study approach on a submarine pipeline project in the Java Sea, utilizing historical analysis and expert information to identify potential risks and their impacts on project costs using fuzzy-based qualitative and quantitative analysis. The study found two field condition risk factors, one external risk and thirteen technical risk factors in a submarine pipeline construction project using the S-Lay method. In an academic context, this study conducts an in-depth and detailed analysis of the identification stage, analysis, classification of risk levels (field conditions, external and technical), relationships between risk variables, corrective actions, corrective action costs, and contingency cost analysis. The results of the analysis help in estimating project costs in more detail