Forecasting short-term passenger flow on a bus route: a splitting–integrating method based on passenger travel behavior

Abstract

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is the key to implement real-time dynamic dispatching of buses, which can meet the travel time requirement of passengers with different attributes. In practice, it is difficult to obtain passenger attribute information due to the restriction of bus information systems or other conditions. This article proposes a new perspective on identifying passenger attribute information, that is, the correlation between the bus card number and the travel time is used to analyse passenger travel behaviour. Then using the travel frequency as the splitting boundary, the passenger set is split into different types of subsets, which are predicted by different methods. The total forecast values are obtained by integration, so as to explore the effectiveness of the passenger attribute identification and splitting–integrating method. The result shows that: (1) compared with the forecasting method without considering the passenger travel behaviour, the performance of splitting–integrating method is better, and the passenger attribute identification method is effective; (2) the value of the splitting boundary will affect the size and consistency of the subset, and the optimal value can be sought according to forecast results; (3) different types of subsets should be treated by different forecasting models and combination paths