Cold War 2.0 or Just Hot Air? Putting U.S.-China AI Competition in Perspective.

Abstract

The idea of a “Digital Cold War” between the United States and China has taken hold in headlines and policy conversations since 2017, driven by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. This thesis examines how that analogy gained traction, why it resonates, and whether it holds up under closer scrutiny. It gives particular attention to national security concerns and challenges common assumptions about AI’s future. Drawing from international relations theory, historical analysis, and Cold War scholarship, the project develops a five-part framework based on the defining features of the original Cold War. This framework is then applied to U.S.-China AI rivalry to evaluate the accuracy of the Digital Cold War narrative. Combined with a close analysis of arguments on both sides of the debate, the findings suggest that the parallels to the Cold War are more compelling than the differences. Acknowledging these parallels and reckoning with the power narratives have in shaping policy offers a valuable opportunity to avoid unnecessary escalation and more deliberately shape the trajectory of U.S.-China relations.No embargoAcademic Major: International StudiesAcademic Major: Computer and Information Scienc