Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty during the euro’s lifetime. WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 10/2022 | 20 JUNE 2022.

Abstract

To measure macroeconomic uncertainty, we start from observable forecasts of macroeconomic variables, which are transformations of underlying economic conditions. By observing how forecasts change over time, we measure the flow of macroeconomic surprises. The more intense the flow of surprises, the greater uncertainty can be said to be. Greater differences among forecasts are also evidence of uncertainty. We draw out four indicators of macroeconomic uncertainty, measured over the lifetime of the euro: 1. How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution for the same time period change over time; 2. How the macroeconomic forecasts of a given institution deviate from realised outcomes; 3. How the macroeconomic forecasts of different institutions deviate from one other; 4. How dispersed the forecasts of different professionals are. We also measure whether the ‘stag-‘ or the ‘-flationary’ component is stronger in the overall stagflationary shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine